February 2nd, 2003, 1:23 pm
Must be Sunday...You know, I don't think there can be a more secure, stable job than that of tenured college professor. Which may mislead a lot of people who spend a lifetime "researching" it about the true nature of wealth and risk. Of course there is nothing riskier than life itself, where you may never be born, or where a piano may fall on your head. But beyond that I think the the so-called "risks" of financial enterprises - even though economies of scale may justify measuring their minutia to many decimal places - paint a false picture of economics.For one thing, a lot of people think there is much risk, layoffs, and feast-or-famine in the fast-paced world of financial services. But even being a professional poker player involves little risk compared to the common pursuit of farming over the last 1,000 years, crab-fishing today, owning a restaurant, or starting a record company. In fact, if any of you have ever been around show-business people, you will notice the income gap which Hollywood airheads rail against, is about 30 trillion to one. Most movie stars are weathered 40-year-old never-was girls living in trailers.Another thing I have noticed, is that money in the bank rarely is. As real statisticians are so quick to point out whenever politicians talk about "the rich," people are moving in and out of the top income bracket at a ridiculous pace, most of those in the bottom fifth in 1978 were in the top fifth sometime since, and the only real guarantee of financial security seems to be gray hair impotence and osteoporosis. My father the architect warns that there are two kinds of real-estate developers, those who have gone bankrupt, and those who haven't yet gone bankrupt but will.The bottom line being, that people who stumble onto something that works and strike it rich, do not suddenly fly off to Hawaii and relax for a decade, or blow all their money on five Mercedes Benz's. More often than not, they plough most of their money back into what works, and keep doubling up until suddenly they are broke again when it stops working. Like stopped clocks which are accurate twice a day, politicians actually admit this when they advocate putting money into the hands of the poor, who have a higher propensity to consume rather than invest.I would argue that economic evolution takes places at a far more vicious pace not just than utopian communists imagined, but even faster than most capitalist can picture. The rise and fall of a species, whether it be a certain activity or enterprise, from the pinnacle of the economic universe to oblivion, can happen in a matter of months. And nor do I think this is a bad thing, but rather represents the ideal of capitalism in its natural state, and at its peak efficiency. I see it like the carcass of a fallen forest animal being consumed by microbes in eleven seconds.So what we essentially have is a giant neural network, with a particular learning frequency. The faster the frequency at which it can learn - the faster fortunes can rise or fall - the shorter the correlated streams of economic needs and events which can be exploited as trends. The faster a particular enterprise can rise, the more it can exploit an opportunity - meaning the more people it can feed and cloth and house and distract - in the middle, meaning when it still works. If you reduce the learning frequency by only half, the height of that peak may be reduced by 90%.And what this constant siphoning off of the rich achieves, through quarterly filing and withholding and a mountain of other compliance, is deadening that growth-and-decay-rate, and reducing the height of production at the sweet spot substantially. I would argue that if US government diverting of resources shrunk by half as a percentage of GDP, the economy could grow and satisfy people not just at twice the rate, but at perhaps five or six or seven times the rate. People who make a little money, should be freed to go absolutely nuts for their brief shining moment.Who doubts that if I kept all the money I made trading, that I wouldn't spend every penny of it buying computers, hiring programmers and, ultimately, instructing farmers accurately as to whether people are in need of more grain or pulp this month?MP