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Cuchulainn
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 1st, 2020, 7:49 pm

yes the baby boom will start in the fall.
How many babies are the Chinese allowed to have these days?
22?
 
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Paul
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 4th, 2020, 8:09 am

I keep reading about there being a “second wave” in Japan and Singapore because they opened up too soon. Can anyone see these second waves in the data?
 
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thanasis31
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 4th, 2020, 10:05 am

Japan has a slight upward trend..
japan.png
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 4th, 2020, 11:48 am

I keep reading about there being a “second wave” in Japan and Singapore because they opened up too soon. Can anyone see these second waves in the data?
It means we are too late.
A self-respecting ODE model should be able to predicts this. Didn't Lyapunov and  Poincaré address these problems more than a century ago?
 
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Paul
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 6th, 2020, 11:22 pm

Damning https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-revie ... ons-model/

Pretty much as feared. Only 100 times worse.

If history is anything to go by there’ll be no consequences.

But in the short term they need

1. some grown ups to make their models public

2. to have some non-academic economists and business people on the advisory panel
 
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bearish
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 7th, 2020, 12:36 am

Once again Wikipedia comes to the rescue when you guys post stuff from/about people that I’ve never heard of. Sue Denim is at least well covered...
 
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Paul
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 7th, 2020, 1:24 am

You should get out more...but not just yet!
 
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Paul
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 7th, 2020, 2:14 am

Where's the resurgence I keep reading about??? I've looked at the data for dozens of countries. No resurgence to be seen. Do these people not know about the internet? 
 
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Paul
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 7th, 2020, 3:39 am

The clever men at Oxford, know all that there is to be knowed. But they none of them know one half as much, as intelligent Mr. Toad Professor Ferguson.
 
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Paul
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 12th, 2020, 7:58 am

China has played a blinder here! A seasonal cold comes along and with a little bit of disinformation and double bluffing they manage to get the west to destroy itself in panic. Next they’ll be buying up all our bankrupt companies. Genius!

Ni hao ma?

Hen hao!!!
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 12th, 2020, 9:47 am

The clever men at Oxford, know all that there is to be knowed. But they none of them know one half as much, as intelligent Mr. Toad Professor Ferguson.
On the other hand, are them C programmers? There are several online courses out there in order to build skils.
 
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Collector
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 23rd, 2020, 5:47 pm

Sweden which is worst hit per capita in Europe? due to very open policy: Interesting

"We have to go back to December 1993 to find more deaths in a single month. Then, 11,057 people died. In total, 97,008 people died in 1993 which was the highest number of deaths in one year since 1918 during the peak of the Spanish flu," said Tomas Johansson, analyst at Statistics Sweden, in a statement.
If you take population figures into account however, more people died in January 2000 than in April this year. A total of 110.8 people per 100,000 inhabitants died that month, compared to 101.1 last month.

The high death numbers in December 1993 and January 2000 were likely both caused by unusually serious outbreaks of the seasonal flu at the time, which claimed many lives, particularly during the 1993-1994 season."

What did young people do in december 1993? At least I was dancing at Disco Tiffany (was best disco in Oslo, closed down a few years later when a new generation not knowing disco dance entered the scene, in 1993 Gordon Gekko suspenders was popular on the west side disco floor (among farm boys visiting the capital for the weekend))

why is the most relevant and important key stats not easily available for each country ? I mean it should be just as easily available as world meter or so..

Number of deaths per month in each country now in corona times compared to number of deaths per month per country, age etc .in non corona years. Yes possible to dig out, but far from easily accessible.

Quite common here to hear a health "experts" warn people from relaying on fake news and non scientific news about corona, next minute the same person tell how many died in each country from corona based on worldometers. To have tested positive for corona and die is not the same as dying from corona. 

It is frightening to see massive health organizations that have been planning for pandemic for ages not even are prepared to report key important basic stats to be easily accessible.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 24th, 2020, 11:39 am

It would be interesting to know Dominic Cummings' views on the pandemic.
 
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katastrofa
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 24th, 2020, 12:40 pm

You can access the data from Statistics Sweden (https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistic ... -covid-19/)
Simple death statistics tell a lot:
swedendeaths.png
(data from the Excel spreadsheet found here: https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/news-and ... in-sweden/)
 
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katastrofa
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 24th, 2020, 12:53 pm

Og overplus for mann og kvinner aldersgrupper (Tabell 7)
swedendeaths_byage-man.png
swedendeaths_byage-kvinner.png


@"It would be interesting to know Dominic Cummings' views on the pandemic."

Cummings or his lookalike seen in a Durham village while the actual Dominic Cummings was quarantining himself strictly according to the government advise? Can we still trust in what he (?) says?
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