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Dece
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Joined: July 19th, 2009, 11:27 pm

Risks of Mean reverting strategy

August 29th, 2009, 5:41 am

Hi Folks,While building a successful mean reverting strategy, one always runs the risk on not completing the order if the prices do not revert back to their historical mean.A scenario would be when the prices keep moving upwards and a mean reverting strategy will almost not buy anything. How does one decide or how soon a strategy can decide if the mean reversion is not a good idea. One can wait all day, and no fills will happen. If one waits too long, there is adverse selection. I am not looking at some common sense approaches one can take to conclude something like this without jumping the guns too soon or too late.Thoughts?Gracias Dece
 
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hamster
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Joined: October 12th, 2008, 3:51 pm

Risks of Mean reverting strategy

September 7th, 2009, 10:24 pm

There is not much you can do if you trade one asset. There are just conventional wisdoms: Try to forecast price changes depending on time lengths (=your exspectations) and set stop loss rules to avoid madness.