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vespaGL150
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Joined: October 25th, 2004, 4:53 am

Early call / early exercise probabilities

June 29th, 2010, 11:19 am

Our clients that take exposure to cancellable range accrual (libor, cms, cms spread etc) swaps like to know the probability of these structures being called. Typically we?ve been providing them ?risk neutral? probabilities, inferred from the relevant pricing model under either the spot or terminal measure, rather than ?real world? probabilities which I think is what they really want.Is there any way of roughly estimating real world probabilities from the risk neutral probabilities? Does it in fact require setting up an equilibrium style model and attempting to pricing these structures under this model rather than under a no arbitrage pricing model? (From what I recall of equilibrium models they struggle to even recover spot bond prices never mind complex callable structures) Any thoughts on estimating real world call probabilities for these cancellable structures would be appreciated.