Which is the risk in futures calendars spread trading in natural gas?for example if I go long in future NGc1 and short in NGc2? When I have to rolls C1 in C2 e C2 in C3 what's happen to my spread?

proceed with caution in NatGas ... more people have had their heads handed back to them in this market than most others (Amaranth, Motherock to name a couple). the problem is particularly acute in spring when an early spring or prolonged winter can have significant effect on the roll.

Could you better explane what are these effects? If I vhave the spread between the contract for example c1 and c2 is enough to go long or short spread on this or is there something that I do not see? there is something else when I rolls?What are the best commodities for futures calendars spread?

Such a calendar spread trading in commodities, having a seasonal forwards shape, is profitable, but needs a more strict risk control.The roll is a critical part in that you can ride and make bucks on the forward curve. However, it depends on many factors. After credit crisis, the curves of most commodities changed abruptly to super-contango for a time.Besides, you should monitor the fund-flows, particulary, of natural gas ETF. Many investors use vehicles such as commodity indices and ETFs, and they have a pre-defined roll schedule, on which day trading houses go mad. The trade must effect your position, either.

ok thank!And what is for you the best commodities to make spread trading?Have ou have some paper about gas spread trading?I have to study the date when etf make the rolls?UNG?

I like crack spreads, if that is something that interests you. Calendar spreads on Crude oil and it's products are fun too. I know people who do just pork belly spreads too for a career. It is very interesting because of the time lines of pork bellies. There are crush spreads with soybean, but I have not delved much into it, although it is interesting too. Edit: There is an old book by Courtney Smith on Futures spread trading that gives some basic descriptions of spread trading in commodities and futures in general.

thank you so much joy for the info, I'm very interested in these arguments

If you are interested in a case study of what happened to Amaranth, there are a few papers put out by EDHEC:Amaranth - Early Lessons SummaryEarly Lessons Study - Hillary TillThe Amaranth Collapse - What Have We Learned So Far - Hillary TillTill has done other work on commodities markets:EDHEC - Faculty ResearchYou might also check out Hélyette Geman - PublicationsShe is a Professor of Finance at Birkbeck, University of London, and also the Director of the Commodity Finance Centre and ESCP Europe.