Sobol Numbers
Posted: July 25th, 2011, 9:59 am
I am using the direction numbers given by this websitehttp://web.maths.unsw.edu.au/~fkuo/sobol/index.htmlI understand it's widely used so direction numbers are bound to be correct!When i use them to generate a sample path for 1 year stock then max the stock price is reaching is <106. I am not sure weather the numbers are crappy or something else. I rechecked my code many times, but it's fairly simple. double expiry=1.0; int dimensions = 50; int nsims = 10; double **phi = sobolnumbers(dimensions,nsims); double **paths; //each simulation consists of 1000 dimensions paths = new double*[dimensions]; for(int i=0;i<dimensions;i++) { paths = new double[nsims]; } for(int i=0;i<nsims;i++) paths[0]=100; double dt = 1.0/50; printf("%.5f",dt*dimensions); //perfect sobol numbers working! for(int j=0;j<nsims;j++) { for(int i=1;i<dimensions;i++) { paths[j] = paths[i-1][j]*exp((0.05-0.20*0.20*0.5)*dt + inverse(phi[j])*0.2*pow(dt,0.5)); printf("%.2f\t",paths[j]); } printf("\n\n\n"); }dt = 1/50 so that dt * dimensions -> dt * 50 = 1 or 1 year. ///Sample output100.06 98.23 100.18 99.34 102.69 99.46 100.42 99.10 101.68 97.4297.91 95.55 96.93 96.56 100.90 100.74 106.25 104.01 105.79 101.98102.73 101.63 104.63 101.75 102.98 102.35 106.30 104.63 107.02 101.59101.88 100.15 102.28 96.30 96.46 93.62 94.64 93.95 97.34 93.5794.15 93.02 95.61 95.35 100.03 97.77 99.32 97.36 99.16100.06 98.23 100.18 101.15 97.97 101.27 100.42 104.94 104.53 106.05103.49 102.13 104.79 100.40 100.90 100.74 106.25 104.01 105.79 108.92107.75 108.54 104.63 104.93 99.60 101.88 100.28 97.52 98.69 98.09101.88 103.49 101.15 106.12 105.83 101.73 102.36 101.14 103.95 102.19104.36 98.25 98.42 101.97 101.23 102.33 99.32 101.74 100.28100.06 98.23 100.18 103.56 102.69 103.68 100.42 100.04 104.53 102.00103.49 104.01 99.65 102.25 100.90 102.12 99.30 103.14 102.51 100.90103.21 97.97 98.24 101.15 100.07 100.80 97.17 95.12 96.75 96.59101.88 102.28 97.60 99.98 98.54 98.05 102.13 99.49 100.81 107.21107.15 109.13 106.98 103.39 104.27 103.27 106.53 103.39 104.52100.06 102.05 100.18 99.34 102.69 103.68 100.42 100.93 96.70 95.4397.91 102.32 101.93 99.46 100.90 99.32 101.59 101.88 96.71 94.0495.17 98.85 98.24 101.15 100.07 96.46 97.17 98.84 96.75 96.59101.88 98.88 99.95 103.55 102.80 101.06 103.21 103.39 97.34 98.8896.64 96.38 101.11 103.92 102.68 98.71 99.32 98.82 102.93100.06 102.05 100.18 97.03 97.97 101.27 100.42 99.10 101.68 102.2097.91 97.54 101.93 103.41 100.90 106.43 106.25 104.01 105.79 108.92107.75 103.87 104.63 105.90 102.98 102.35 106.30 106.60 101.19 99.60101.88 106.11 105.58 102.85 104.22 106.76 105.23 100.41 100.81 102.67100.65 100.60 106.98 107.89 104.27 103.27 106.53 102.40 103.04100.06 98.23 100.18 99.34 102.69 99.46 100.42 100.04 104.53 102.00103.49 99.15 99.65 98.34 100.90 101.19 96.05 98.24 96.71 100.4499.83 101.03 98.24 103.62 103.45 105.23 103.00 103.76 100.02 102.98101.88 104.36 102.86 103.27 98.54 99.85 97.27 101.31 100.81 102.67100.65 107.04 106.98 110.36 109.31 110.23 106.53 104.72 106.96100.06 102.05 100.18 103.56 102.69 99.46 100.42 104.94 104.53 102.00103.49 99.15 99.65 102.25 100.90 103.89 102.78 99.08 99.80 97.6999.37 104.80 104.63 101.75 102.98 106.95 106.30 108.72 107.02 101.59101.88 103.23 100.56 100.06 104.22 102.72 105.23 105.64 100.81 99.85103.00 103.87 100.38 102.24 100.22 100.17 106.53 106.24 111.46100.06 102.05 100.18 103.56 102.69 99.46 100.42 104.94 104.53 102.00103.49 99.15 99.65 102.25 100.90 100.74 106.25 108.07 105.79 106.57102.73 101.63 104.63 104.93 99.60 98.05 100.28 99.67 103.52 104.77101.88 108.34 108.29 106.15 108.12 104.48 105.37 108.69 107.66 102.74103.14 105.65 104.14 108.46 107.92 105.13 106.53 106.71 100.47100.06 102.05 100.18 101.15 97.97 97.15 100.42 99.10 101.68 102.2097.91 102.32 101.93 99.46 100.90 98.12 99.30 103.14 102.51 102.8097.58 96.05 98.24 98.09 103.45 105.23 103.00 106.05 104.91 101.14101.88 97.22 97.60 99.98 98.54 99.85 97.27 96.79 100.81 99.85103.00 103.87 100.38 106.75 106.70 104.60 106.53 103.39 104.52Can someone point out the mistake or the joe's sobol numbers are not suitable for financial applications???