June 16th, 2012, 6:09 pm
QuoteOriginally posted by: AlanQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: AlanOne thing to include might be some measure of how long it takes (a non-dealer) to execute (any part of a) limit order that improves the market.The first issue is: are such orders even allowed? They weren't for many years with NASDAQ -- it was aso-called dealer market until 1996-1997. The effect was quite dramatic in the 1987 crash. At least the NYSEwas open for business. The NASDAQ dealers simply stopped answerng the phone. So, if your market isa dealer market, you can probably assume that, under times of great stress (like the financial crisis), it will simply disappear.1. Interesting! Isn't this pathological condition exactly like what happened in the flash crash when HF traders pulled out?You could be right. I'm not sure. Trackstar may have some thoughts on that.2. If a market seems to be very liquid until, suddenly, it isn't, then was it ever liquid?Well, liquidity is a random variable -- let's say non-negative, where 0 means the market is essentially gone.You could ask: what is the probability it can reach 0, especially because of structural issues like being a dealer market with just a few dealers? If it can reach 0, can it jump to 0 or will there be some warnings?Exactly.Perhaps the key here is that there are at least two different definitions of liquidity that depend on the user's context:1) If one is running daily operations on a portfolio and wants to estimate liquidity associated with routine variations in AUM, rebalancing, or gradual changes in asset allocation, then "average liquidity" probably does a good job. After all, those operations permit some flexibility on the exact timing of trades.2) But if one is handling risk management, margin calls, unwinding rogue trades, and the like, then the "volatility of liquidity" seems more germane because there's much less flexibility on the exact timing of trades. Moreover, to the extent that liquidity is most likely to drop during the times when the participant most needs it, then "worst case liquidity" seems like the way to think about it.