February 7th, 2013, 9:44 pm
I have a similar question where my notional does change. Annually, the notional will be mutlipied by the greater of the 30 year treasury bond yield and a floor, say 3%. To value such a contract, I was running running monte carlo simulations (running 10,000 currently). Here I project out 30 year yields and determine where the floor would be exercised on an annual basis and determine the payoff. I discount any payoff at the current zero coupon treasury yield rates for when the payoff happens. I'm not sure if discounting in such a manner the right way to do it. thoughts?When I do the above (assuming that is a reasonable approach) I struggle with how to model the 30 year interest yield process. Most of the model's I read about are for the short rate and not sure I can use them for the long rate. Even if I can use them for the long rate, I struggle with how to ensure they are risk-neutral. For example, if I extend the geometric brownian motion process model for stocks to the 30 year yield process (Ho-Lee's Oxford guide to financial modeling discusses this approach as do other texts) how do I ensure the process will produce a fair value? What do I use for the drift rate? It makes sense to me how to risk adjust the stock modeling process (basically set the drift rate to the risk free rate), but it's not clear how this works for the interest rate modeling process. thx.