SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

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User avatar
outrun
Posts: 4573
Joined: April 29th, 2016, 1:40 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 20th, 2016, 2:43 pm

Let's drag this back on track:

Who wants to place a bet about the Fed raising the rates this fall?

Could be this week or November, or December.

Precise terms and delivery methods of any wagers please.
what about no rate rise before the election?
What's your two-sided market (odds) on that?
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 20th, 2016, 3:16 pm

Let's drag this back on track:

Who wants to place a bet about the Fed raising the rates this fall?

Could be this week or November, or December.

Precise terms and delivery methods of any wagers please.
what about no rate rise before the election?
What's your two-sided market (odds) on that?
it would be a bet with track for non-monetary stakes (songs, pictures of horses, and the like)
 
User avatar
outrun
Posts: 4573
Joined: April 29th, 2016, 1:40 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 20th, 2016, 3:38 pm

So "shut up and take my money" is not an option?

Will you sing a song for us and post an MP3 of that if track wins?
 
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trackstar
Topic Author
Posts: 27024
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 20th, 2016, 4:10 pm

what about no rate rise before the election?
What's your two-sided market (odds) on that?
it would be a bet with track for non-monetary stakes (songs, pictures of horses, and the like)
Sure, I'll take the other side of that.

So I will say rate raise before the election and ppauper says after, but this is only valid til December 31, 2016.

If I win, I would like a song this time.

If he wins, I will write a Donald a Trump parody/song.
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 20th, 2016, 4:57 pm

What's your two-sided market (odds) on that?
it would be a bet with track for non-monetary stakes (songs, pictures of horses, and the like)
Sure, I'll take the other side of that.

So I will say rate raise before the election and ppauper says after, but this is only valid til December 31, 2016.

If I win, I would like a song this time.

If he wins, I will write a Donald a Trump parody/song.
ok, it's a wager, and song lyrics it is
 
User avatar
trackstar
Topic Author
Posts: 27024
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 22nd, 2016, 2:57 am

I am sure this brought joy to your Fed-loving heart today! :D

Fed sets stage for 2016 rate rise

Dissenting central bank trio votes for an immediate lift

https://www.ft.com/content/cb0f4316-802 ... c15fb462f4
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 22nd, 2016, 7:34 am

I am sure this brought joy to your Fed-loving heart today! :D

Fed sets stage for 2016 rate rise

Dissenting central bank trio votes for an immediate lift

https://www.ft.com/content/cb0f4316-802 ... c15fb462f4
the Fed is  doing everything it can to help Hillary win
yellen helps clinton dodge a bullet
yellen denies playing politics
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 22nd, 2016, 8:20 am

meanwhile,  even the UN is sounding off on the damage the Fed has wrought
UN fears third leg of the global financial crisis - with prospect of epic debt defaults
 
User avatar
bearish
Posts: 5379
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 22nd, 2016, 1:13 pm

I am sure this brought joy to your Fed-loving heart today! :D

Fed sets stage for 2016 rate rise

Dissenting central bank trio votes for an immediate lift

https://www.ft.com/content/cb0f4316-802 ... c15fb462f4
the Fed is  doing everything it can to help Hillary win
yellen helps clinton dodge a bullet
yellen denies playing politics
Thought experiment: If you were a voting member of the OMC and your professional, educated and reasoned opinion was that a Trump presidency would most likely be a disaster for the US economy (leaving aside any non-economic considerations, as well as consequences for the rest of the world), wouldn't it actually be your job to try to prevent it? 
 
User avatar
Traden4Alpha
Posts: 23951
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 22nd, 2016, 1:41 pm

I am sure this brought joy to your Fed-loving heart today! :D

Fed sets stage for 2016 rate rise

Dissenting central bank trio votes for an immediate lift

https://www.ft.com/content/cb0f4316-802 ... c15fb462f4
the Fed is  doing everything it can to help Hillary win
yellen helps clinton dodge a bullet
yellen denies playing politics
Thought experiment: If you were a voting member of the OMC and your professional, educated and reasoned opinion was that a Trump presidency would most likely be a disaster for the US economy (leaving aside any non-economic considerations, as well as consequences for the rest of the world), wouldn't it actually be your job to try to prevent it? 
Interesting!

If one's job is to maintain a stable currency, then a political candidate that would destabilize that currency by defaulting would be a problem that requires your attention.
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 22nd, 2016, 2:25 pm

I am sure this brought joy to your Fed-loving heart today! :D

Fed sets stage for 2016 rate rise

Dissenting central bank trio votes for an immediate lift

https://www.ft.com/content/cb0f4316-802 ... c15fb462f4
the Fed is  doing everything it can to help Hillary win
yellen helps clinton dodge a bullet
yellen denies playing politics
Thought experiment: If you were a voting member of the OMC and your professional, educated and reasoned opinion was that a Trump presidency would most likely be a disaster for the US economy (leaving aside any non-economic considerations, as well as consequences for the rest of the world), wouldn't it actually be your job to try to prevent it? 
no, you would be acting outsie your mandate
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 22nd, 2016, 2:35 pm


the Fed is  doing everything it can to help Hillary win
yellen helps clinton dodge a bullet
yellen denies playing politics
Thought experiment: If you were a voting member of the OMC and your professional, educated and reasoned opinion was that a Trump presidency would most likely be a disaster for the US economy (leaving aside any non-economic considerations, as well as consequences for the rest of the world), wouldn't it actually be your job to try to prevent it? 
Interesting!

If one's job is to maintain a stable currency, then a political candidate that would destabilize that currency by defaulting would be a problem that requires your attention.
then we both agree that yellen was lying when she said she wasn't playing politics
 
User avatar
Traden4Alpha
Posts: 23951
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 22nd, 2016, 2:37 pm

Thought experiment: If you were a voting member of the OMC and your professional, educated and reasoned opinion was that a Trump presidency would most likely be a disaster for the US economy (leaving aside any non-economic considerations, as well as consequences for the rest of the world), wouldn't it actually be your job to try to prevent it? 
Interesting!

If one's job is to maintain a stable currency, then a political candidate that would destabilize that currency by defaulting would be a problem that requires your attention.
then we both agree that yellen was lying when she said she wasn't playing politics
But it's not "politics" if it's really economics.
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 22nd, 2016, 2:53 pm

as for the fed mandate,
"The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates,"
they're faking both the employment and inflation numbers
from shadowstats,
the "official" inflation rate is less than 2%, but with the 1980 methodology, it's what, 8%
Image
Courtesy of ShadowStats.com
the "official" unemployment rate is what, 4.5%, but the actual rate is close to 23%
Image
Courtesy of ShadowStats.com
 
User avatar
Traden4Alpha
Posts: 23951
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Re: Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

September 22nd, 2016, 4:07 pm

And when Trump's import blockade raises the costs of most consumer goods, how will that affect the official and shadowstats CPI?

And when Trump's unemployed supporters discover there's no new "good" jobs because they don't have the skills to program robots and they can't get the skills because Trump's gutted education, how will that affect the official and shadowstats unemployment?
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