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by tournesol
September 24th, 2008, 9:11 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Let's Face it, most HF are just big Gamblers
Replies: 40
Views: 106047

Let's Face it, most HF are just big Gamblers

I think my estimate of 1Mio jobs lots in the Financial Industry worldwide is looking more and more plausible...
by tournesol
September 24th, 2008, 9:08 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Investment Bank Bonus Expectation 2007
Replies: 15
Views: 69013

Investment Bank Bonus Expectation 2007

I guess the response will be 0
by tournesol
September 24th, 2008, 9:06 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: probability of a WS franchise disappear in 2008
Replies: 9
Views: 62711

probability of a WS franchise disappear in 2008

Response: 100%
by tournesol
July 28th, 2008, 3:12 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Investment Bank Bonus Expectation 2007
Replies: 15
Views: 69013

Investment Bank Bonus Expectation 2007

<t>what do you reckon are traders expectations list 2008?I think we went from:" I am worth at least 10% of the PNL on those exotic credit derivatives that are now estimated by the model (maked to model) at .... Millions USD/GBP or I go to somewhere slse...""I want to keep my overpaid job at any cost...
by tournesol
July 28th, 2008, 3:02 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Let's Face it, most HF are just big Gamblers
Replies: 40
Views: 106047

Let's Face it, most HF are just big Gamblers

<t>And the numbers of layoff is growing... 10% was a bit conservative as it appears. Once the UK property market in the UK collapse (which I think is imminent) the UK banks will have to slash jobs like there is no tomorrow... The pound is the next, I think GBP/USD might get below 1.5 in one year fro...
by tournesol
July 28th, 2008, 2:54 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: probability of a WS franchise disappear in 2008
Replies: 9
Views: 62711

probability of a WS franchise disappear in 2008

<t>Hi All, the fact that I haven't received any text to the question below indicates really how the Quant community on Wilmott forum is blind. I do think that "Quants" should better recycle in math or physics where they belong. But the incentive of money is so powerfull that even the brighthest amon...
by tournesol
March 12th, 2008, 5:01 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Let's Face it, most HF are just big Gamblers
Replies: 40
Views: 106047

Let's Face it, most HF are just big Gamblers

<t>when I estimate 1mio jobs lost in the investment banking worldwide i don't just mean in M&A and Trading but also in other areas:Compliance, Risk Mgt (which proved to be useless again to avoid the big desaster), Back Office, Front Office (Sales and Traders and structurers), IT (support, develo...
by tournesol
March 9th, 2008, 10:25 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Let's Face it, most HF are just big Gamblers
Replies: 40
Views: 106047

Let's Face it, most HF are just big Gamblers

<t>and more and more HF are going bust. My prevision is that at least 1 million employees in the Investment banking side are going to loose their jobs this year. We are talking about business management, traders, sales, support and back office.Number one to be affected will be NY then London. The pr...
by tournesol
January 13th, 2008, 9:41 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: probability of a WS franchise disappear in 2008
Replies: 9
Views: 62711

probability of a WS franchise disappear in 2008

Who is betting at least a franchise will disappear (be it via a merger or take over ).What are the odd's for those name to vansish?Morgan Stanley (MS) ?Merril Lynch (ML) ?Lehman Bros (LEH) ?Moreover how would you calculate this odd?
by tournesol
January 13th, 2008, 9:37 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Investment Bank Bonus Expectation 2007
Replies: 15
Views: 69013

Investment Bank Bonus Expectation 2007

Looks my call was right. Possibly 2008 will even get worse in terms of Bonus expectations...
by tournesol
November 14th, 2007, 12:25 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Investment Bank Bonus Expectation 2007
Replies: 15
Views: 69013

Investment Bank Bonus Expectation 2007

<t>That is not what we see in the headlines:FT.COM --> "Banks to pay more of bonus in sharesBy Lina Saigol, European M&A Correspondent "Published: November 13 2007 18:59 | Last updated: November 13 2007 18:59Leading investment bankers across Wall Street and the City of London will have up to 70 ...
by tournesol
November 13th, 2007, 7:20 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Investment Bank Bonus Expectation 2007
Replies: 15
Views: 69013

Investment Bank Bonus Expectation 2007

Hi Fellow investment banks, Traders, Quants and IT.Just for my interest, do you think the bonus will come short of expectation this year due to subprime or not?
by tournesol
November 13th, 2007, 7:13 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: House Price Crash in the UK
Replies: 73
Views: 76694

House Price Crash in the UK

<t>1) to begin with, i'd like to point out the fact that the biggest employers in the City of London have trouble with their balance sheet and this is likely to get a lot worse before it get better. Yes I'm talking suprime here.2) Second, UBS did alread mentionned that they intend to cap bonus to 75...
by tournesol
August 28th, 2007, 3:17 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: "Frequent Quant explanantion of why they underperformed" Contest
Replies: 28
Views: 70635

"Frequent Quant explanantion of why they underperformed" Contest

I think this web site does answer all my questions:http://hf-implode.comit's worth reading