<r>One of Soddy's books, "The Role of Money" (1934) is available as a scanned PDF download at the internet achive:<URL url="http://www.archive.org/details/roleofmoney032861mbpDownload"><LINK_TEXT text="http://www.archive.org/details/roleofmo ... bpDownload">http://www.archive.org/details/roleofmoney...

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: PaulHow about we work backwards. How much money do governments have lying around? A couple of years ago there was no money to pay for all manner of good works, now governments merrily announce the size of a new bailout by adding a zero to the size of the previous one. N...

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4Alpha...To the extent that the future is opaque and the consequences of action aren't well known, the optimal strategy tends to become quite myopic (i.e., one uses a so-called greedy algorithms to make decisions). ... !This is not entirely accurate. Under true un...

<t>While I see a huge deflationary process going into the next couple of years, I shudder to think of what kind of inflation will set in if there is a sudden upturn in consumer confidence. Something as simple as discovering a new massive source of Oil/Natural Gas may do it, and a bubble of epic prop...

<t>The fundamental problem can only be solved if people are willing to accept high short-term volatility in exchange for mitigating large deviations (you want thinner tails? then you _have to_ accept fatter shoulders). Since humans have finite lifespans and finite careers, they will always prefer sh...

<t>You could use the Hurst Exponent. An Hurst exponent < 0.5 will lean towards mean-reverting behavior and >0.5 will show persistent behavior. From the wiki link:"In fractal geometry, the generalized Hurst exponent, named H in honor of both Harold Edwin Hurst (1880-1978) and Ludwig Otto Hölder (1859...

<t>I currently run Bricolage Labs, an open laboratory for self-experimentation and trial-and-error. People can capture their hypotheses and experiments there, share them with the community, and vote-up interesting and useful results.I'm thinking of expanding it to offer tools for researchers who are...

Relevant:The problem with "drift"

<r>For a vanilla european option on an equity, does a priori knowledge of (well behaved) drift change the option valuation? Why/why not?I'm not able to capture the intuition behind the following paper:<URL url="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=240793Thanks"><LINK_TEXT text="http://...

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: MartinghoulProcreate copiously? I mean produce lots of progeny, i.e. have lots and lots of children...This may be relevant to that suggestion. However, I'm talking about the possibility of going long hundreds of such options, not just a handful. Plus children are expens...

<t>What are the ways to go long a large number of OTM options in the real world (outside of options markets)? Would involve starting a business, so far I've been able to come up with:1. Publishing (music, books, art)2. Movie studios (similar to #1)3. Venture Capital4. Patenting (credit to Collector,...

Thanks.

<t>I understand there are two ways I can set up a long kurtosis trade on a given underlying:1. "Ratio Backspread" where I go long multiple OTM strangles for every short ATM straddle of the same maturity as long as I make sure it's a credit spread. 2. A calendar spread where I go long the far-term AT...

<t>Hmmm...odd. I didn't delete any of my posts. gardener3's post in between my two replies also seems to have disappeared. Anyway, my response to you was that I will try and approach it from a long-term risk vs. short-term risk pricability, but the line between long-term and short-term is not only a...

<t>I think you're making an implicit assumption that option prices in the far tails have a well defined mean. I do not want to go into the infinite variance argument (kurtosis brought it up once, and that thread went nowhere), but I will say that if there's any doubt about it I'd like to be on the r...