March 15th, 2009, 10:48 pm
QuoteOriginally posted by: LazyDogSoddy's theory of the "middle bit" - the interesting part - I could not find a description of anywhere! - and since it was 50 bucks plus shipping to find out more, ... I decided to spend the cash on a round of drinks. This choice (which I can see making myself, too) exemplifies the declining role of real assets in modern society. At a broader level, physical assets are being deflated in favor of ephemeral experiences -- people would rather have fun than have stuff. The service economy is triumphing over the industrial economy. That trend makes Soddy's ideas rather less applicable.QuoteOriginally posted by: LazyDogAlthough we seem to be at a dead-end as far as the illustrious chemist is concerned, continuing the theme of looking for new ideas among the old - there was a thesis recently posted on the new financial section of arxiv from a german guy (- sorry, don't have the reference to hand; you can all google as well I can anyway) which was a historical study of various money and banking systems - one of the conclusions, en passant, was that a "tally stick" system used up to about 1300 actually worked rather well, the author claiming that there had been no bubble/crash type catastrophes when it had been used. I was flabbergasted to read this - Dark Age minds could solve this "immense" problem and it wasn't even a Leonardo or a Galileo, but ... Scrot the Pig Farmer and Moog the Dung Collector. A sobering thought. (An interesting aside in this historical study was that debtor nations will often wage war against their creditors ... just as US and Chinese warships are having a staring contest in the South China Sea.)Tally sticks are merely another form of fiat currency -- nothing prevents the tally stick maker from notching and using unlimited numbers of tally sticks (except for inflation and the "full faith and credit" concerns found with any fiat currency). That tally sticks formed a stable currency in the past is probably more due to the poor development of logistics in the ancient world than due to inherent qualities of the tally stick concept. If used in a modern context (e.g., electronic tally sticks), then you could do anything with a tally stick that you can do with fiat currency, including the sorts of fractional-reserve lending and securitization activities blamed as a cause of this crisis.This last issue is a major problem for economic theory (and why methods from physics and chemistry are so ill-suited to economics). Too many people, especially scientists, have the base-level assumption that schemes that worked well in the past will work well in the future.QuoteOriginally posted by: LazyDogA curious reference which you may appreciate - in his massive tome "Tragedy and Hope" (- an unusual and candidly illuminating history book), Carroll Quigley towards the end, looking towards the future starts to work himself into a real tizzy - he is worried about what happens when too many "claims on wealth" are chasing too little "real wealth". This was in 1966.Yes, this is a serious problem that is actually worse than we might think. Personally, I don't believe that "real assets" exist in any useful way. Yes, some assets might have a very long history of being more readily exchangeable for a wider range of goods, in a wider range of venues, over a wider range of timeframes and with less volatility of exchange rate. But we must NEVER confuse historical liquidity or price stability with a guarantee of future liquidity and stability. That assumption of ever-present liquidity was a fatal mistake for Iceland, ARS (Auction Rate Securities), housing, mortgage securitization, and just about ever other economic bubble. Yes, an ozt of gold feels more tangible than a stack of paper money, but try using that gold to buy $900 worth of groceries at a Wal-Mart and you'll discover that the metal isn't worth as much as you might think. My point is that all asset values depend on a social and economic context and that makes all asset values a function of animal spirits rather than physical laws.The larger point is that all "assets" have a component of Soddy's virtuality to them because their value is defined by a latent mathematical promise about the future. That is, the value of the asset is derived from the time-discounted potential to use that asset to produce value or to exchange that asset for other things of value.QuoteOriginally posted by: LazyDogA final, final remark - as no long, rambling, forum comment is ever complete with a reference to Hitler and the Nazis, I shall continue to respect the tradition - the Nazis backed their currency with a massive program of public works; can this ever work, or is a just another unsustainable racket?I see two scenarios in which public works do work. First, if the works increase the society's realized incremental taxable returns through increased productive capacity in the context of unmet demand. That is, if the public works results in new economic activity that generates taxes sufficient to cover that public spending, then that spending works. Second, one can also justify public spending as a form of insurance against unrest. In such situations, the total wealth of the society may end up lower, but not as low as if unrest were allowed to damage key public infrastructure (e.g., people stealing the phone and electrical wires to recycle the copper).