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by gnatty8
September 12th, 2021, 3:40 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Evaluating Lease or Own Decision for Precious Metals
Replies: 7
Views: 3263

Re: Evaluating Lease or Own Decision for Precious Metals

None that would be of any help.  One exists for many metals, gold, platinum, etc., but the economic lives of the metals are measured in the multiple years (5 or more), whereas the tenors of the forward market are more like 12 to 18 months.. 
by gnatty8
September 10th, 2021, 3:49 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Evaluating Lease or Own Decision for Precious Metals
Replies: 7
Views: 3263

Re: Evaluating Lease or Own Decision for Precious Metals

Precious metals can be used catalyst in many manufacturing processes, with very little losses and most of the metals recovered at later date.
by gnatty8
July 14th, 2021, 5:56 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Evaluating Lease or Own Decision for Precious Metals
Replies: 7
Views: 3263

Re: Evaluating Lease or Own Decision for Precious Metals

Haha, OK, I can add a branch to my decision tree..
by gnatty8
July 14th, 2021, 2:53 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Evaluating Lease or Own Decision for Precious Metals
Replies: 7
Views: 3263

Evaluating Lease or Own Decision for Precious Metals

Trying to develop a basic tool to illustrate optimal strategy for leasing or owning precious metals (i.e. doesn't matter which, rhodium, platinum) and thinking of setting up as an N-year project, modeling PMs price is GBM, lease rate is a variable, with reset once per year.  It's an over-simplificat...
by gnatty8
March 27th, 2007, 1:36 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Interest Rate Musings
Replies: 11
Views: 77191

Interest Rate Musings

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: cpulmanWhat if Asian central banks decided to offload their Treasuries? Even with the recent changes in pension & insurance fund liability management, a trillion dollars worth of bonds hitting the market could very well push yields back up above 7%...Great point, bu...
by gnatty8
March 23rd, 2007, 11:08 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Understanding hedging of Jet Fuel
Replies: 2
Views: 76315

Understanding hedging of Jet Fuel

There is a good article in the Fall 2006 issue of Journal of Applied Corporate Finance entitled "Hedging and Value in the U.S. Airline Industry" that you may find helpful. Written by David Carter, Daniel Rogers, and Betty Simkins.
by gnatty8
March 23rd, 2007, 11:06 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Interest Rate Musings
Replies: 11
Views: 77191

Interest Rate Musings

<t>If one looks at the Fed's Baa seasoned long bond yield back to 1919, its difficult not to look at the 70s, 80s, and even early 90s, and think "what the hell happened here?" Obviously, the simple answer was rampant and volatile inflation. The period between about 1974 and 1992 is the only period o...
by gnatty8
October 13th, 2006, 12:45 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: interest rate model
Replies: 5
Views: 150779

interest rate model

<t>I believe this topic is discussed in Dixit and Pindyck's "Investment Under Uncertainty". Also, Aaron Brown responded to a similar question with this:The type of mean reversion will determine the annualization. If it's simple autocorrelation, that is tendency to the mean is linear in current devia...
by gnatty8
September 9th, 2005, 3:04 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Negative Beta : Crude Oil Futures
Replies: 1
Views: 136654

Negative Beta : Crude Oil Futures

<t>Any significance to the fact that the 3 year rolling beta of CL12 (12 month out) crude oil futures contract went negative around August 2004 for the first time of any period in the last 10 years, and has remained negative since? I would assume the same of all the contracts (I know it to be true f...
by gnatty8
March 30th, 2005, 8:54 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Hull-White Vol From Blacks Vol?
Replies: 5
Views: 156181

Hull-White Vol From Blacks Vol?

Stupid question. If we know swaption implied vols from Black's, is there any easy way to convert this into Hull-White vol without fitting Hull-White to market prices, even a general rule of thumb?
by gnatty8
March 24th, 2005, 4:54 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Interest Rate Cap
Replies: 2
Views: 156621

Interest Rate Cap

<t>You also really need to think about having the doc reviewed by an attorney. ISDA agreements can have cross-default and MAC type language that can really come back to bite you when you least expect it. Get the counterparty's Schedule (the Master won't actually be negotiated, but you will negotiate...
by gnatty8
March 2nd, 2005, 7:13 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Simulating the CIR process
Replies: 2
Views: 160814

Simulating the CIR process

Didn't CIR assume changes in yields were normally distributed and yields themselves are chi-square? It seems to me it is still appropriate to use the assumption of normally distributed changes.
by gnatty8
January 7th, 2005, 1:54 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: modeling mean-reversion parameter
Replies: 1
Views: 164227

modeling mean-reversion parameter

<t>I would probably start by searching these forums for "mean reversion calibration" as I recall seeing many threads dealing with this over the past few years. Dixit and Pindyck also discuss methods in their "Investment Under Uncertainty". I also recall seeing many articles related ot calibrating me...
by gnatty8
December 13th, 2004, 5:04 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Silly Hedge Ratio Question
Replies: 2
Views: 166555

Silly Hedge Ratio Question

Thank you!
by gnatty8
December 10th, 2004, 3:25 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Silly Hedge Ratio Question
Replies: 2
Views: 166555

Silly Hedge Ratio Question

<t>I have seen 2 ways to calculate the hedge ratio. First, assume we already know beta to be 0.975 from a regression of spot and futures price changes. Next assume we are hedging corn production. Assume a contract size of 10,000 bushels, a futures price of $10.00 per bushel, a spot exposure of 75,00...