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AlexEro
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 15th, 2018, 9:25 pm


People use recipe books. This is 2nd year undergrad stuff.  
Up to about 15 years ago almost all PDE models were in ADI with Crank Nicolson. I introduced ADE, Soviet Spliting and Method of Lines (MOL) here.

 It is amazing (till today) that quant finance community is totally unaware of these methods.
Huge lacunae in the knowledge. 
We are speaking about different subjects: you are talking about approximation and prediction (extrapolating) of a function, if and only if a 100% assurance is given that this function reflects some process that can be fit into differential equation (for example, options trading). If you are not sure that PDE is applicable to your process then you got nothing to do with all those methods.
I am talking about decent (accurate) approximation and profitable extrapolation (prediction) of ANY SAMPLED function (including inner parts and/or formulas of all your methods). Can you see the difference, Cuch?
 
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Traden4Alpha
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 16th, 2018, 2:28 am


People use recipe books. This is 2nd year undergrad stuff.  
Up to about 15 years ago almost all PDE models were in ADI with Crank Nicolson. I introduced ADE, Soviet Spliting and Method of Lines (MOL) here.

 It is amazing (till today) that quant finance community is totally unaware of these methods.
Huge lacunae in the knowledge. 
We are speaking about different subjects: you are talking about approximation and prediction (extrapolating) of a function, if and only if a 100% assurance is given that this function reflects some process that can be fit into differential equation (for example, options trading). If you are not sure that PDE is applicable to your process then you got nothing to do with all those methods.
I am talking about decent (accurate) approximation and profitable extrapolation (prediction) of ANY SAMPLED function (including inner parts and/or formulas of all your methods). Can you see the difference, Cuch?
Hmmm... It would seem your method also requires "100% assurance" that the stencils and the linear methods reflects the process you are modeling.

Although stencil-based systems might be fine for interpolation (even there they can fail badly), extrapolation requires much more assurance of the validity of the methods.
 
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AlexEro
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 16th, 2018, 6:01 am


People use recipe books. This is 2nd year undergrad stuff.  
Up to about 15 years ago almost all PDE models were in ADI with Crank Nicolson. I introduced ADE, Soviet Spliting and Method of Lines (MOL) here.

 It is amazing (till today) that quant finance community is totally unaware of these methods.
Huge lacunae in the knowledge. 
We are speaking about different subjects: you are talking about approximation and prediction (extrapolating) of a function, if and only if a 100% assurance is given that this function reflects some process that can be fit into differential equation (for example, options trading). If you are not sure that PDE is applicable to your process then you got nothing to do with all those methods.
I am talking about decent (accurate) approximation and profitable extrapolation (prediction) of ANY SAMPLED function (including inner parts and/or formulas of all your methods). Can you see the difference, Cuch?
Hmmm... It would seem your method also requires "100% assurance"  that the stencils and the linear methods reflects the process you are modeling.

Although stencil-based systems might be fine for interpolation (even there they can fail badly), extrapolation requires much more assurance of the validity of the methods.
1). Yes, you understand it correctly.
I wrote above:
"In short: getting more samples is not a problem, the problems are:
(1). to find proper stencil functions with decent relation to a real process;
and
(2). to fit them into samples array with minimal error."
The simple Taylor interpolation (even 7...9 order) works fine for sin/cosin regardless of REAL relation between polynom and SIN.
2). QR decomposition gets much more adequate parameters of model than traditional Gauss (Least Squares). This allows more precise extrapolation of unknown function. Sure, the extrapolation is always a tricky process, but in modern math (if we are talking about price time series), the only thing you can be sure about (you can 100% extrapolate) - is periodical sinus/cosinus functions. Any other extrapolation is not flawless.
3). It is not "my" method. It is a generally - accepted practice in science (except FinTech quant finance, weird) in all cases of poorly-defined (poorly-conditioned) stencil matrix. Read here as "when you are not sure about the nature of your process, or when the practice shows up that it perfectly fits into a set of more simple functions". Nothing different of Taylor approximation of sin/cosin.
 
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AlexEro
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 16th, 2018, 6:21 am

Although stencil-based systems might be fine for interpolation (even there they can fail badly)......
Yes, I see now how James Simons and RenTec is crying here. To make it work for semi-random price time series, in order to amplify the stability of profitable predictions,  there should be a serie of additional tricks taken from the world of DSP (digital signal processing). At some point of development of their trading system RenTec guys have clearly seen that no way to do it without DSP guys. Therefore they hired THE WHOLE speech recognition department from IBM.
The global markets SPEAK.
The price chart is just a screenshot from virtual oscilloscope (the exchange) of markets' speaking.
And you have to apply speech technology to deduct the cycles there, the "words" in price waves, and to predict the next part of "phrase".
QR decomposition is a very powerful tool for that.
Last edited by AlexEro on February 18th, 2018, 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 16th, 2018, 8:19 am

I am talking about decent (accurate) approximation and profitable extrapolation (prediction) of ANY SAMPLED function (including inner parts and/or formulas of all your methods). Can you see the difference, Cuch?

For any method, you still have to know the form of the true function, yes? You have some kind of spectral expansion whose eigensystem you get from QR?(?)

As in all walks of life, we have to start with our assumptions.
 
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AlexEro
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 16th, 2018, 8:32 am

I am talking about decent (accurate) approximation and profitable extrapolation (prediction) of ANY SAMPLED function (including inner parts and/or formulas of all your methods). Can you see the difference, Cuch?

For any method, you still have to know the form of the true function, yes? You have some kind of spectral expansion whose eigensystem you get from QR?(?)
1). Nope. The original empirical fuction is just sampled. The better you know the inner character of the sampled function - the better you can choose the set of modelling functions (stencil). Your model will be a LINEAR combination of any kind of stencil functions. Each stencil function can be non-linear or linear, for example polynomials.
2). Nope. No "special spectral expansion" is required. The QR decomposition (yes, invented during research of spectral eigensystems), if applied to Least Squares, is just a very amplified robust version of Gauss' fit of sampled function by linear system solution.
Last edited by AlexEro on February 28th, 2018, 5:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 16th, 2018, 8:52 am

What if you know "nothing" about the empirical function? I suppose you are trying to minimise some kind of functional?
 
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AlexEro
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 16th, 2018, 9:06 am

What if you know "nothing" about the empirical function? I suppose you are trying to minimise some kind of functional?
... reduced.....
 Sorry, guys, that is too much.
I am a poor jobless developer from destroyed Ukraine.
And you are (...let me read from the past the quote by Mr. Paul... here...) ..."Is it this forum or quant finance generally that attracts people who hold down proper jobs during the day, earning decent money, write research papers,..."
I told you some details about profitable subject unknown for you as of today. It works at RenTec, it seems to work in my own test environment.
The rest of research is your job.
Last edited by AlexEro on February 28th, 2018, 5:17 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 16th, 2018, 11:21 am

"you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink"

?
 
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AlexEro
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 18th, 2018, 10:31 am

"you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink"
?
You are not a horse, Cuch, aren't you?
 
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AlexEro
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 18th, 2018, 10:41 am

Can't put my finger on it, but it sounds all a bit negative without getting clear about things. What is he trying to say?
Seroiusly? Why in universe he has to be positive about RenTec?
"Why Did RenTec Keep Their Madoff TRS After Uncovering His Ponziness, And Other Questions"
https://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-d ... njgw%3D%3D
"How they failed to catch Madoff"
http://fortune.com/2011/05/10/how-they- ... njgw%3D%3D

"Renaissance to SEC: Seeing Madoff's Fraud Wasn't Rocket Science"

http://www.businessinsider.com/renaissa ... njgw%3D%3D

"US Senate hearings about abuse of structures products":

http://www.hsgac.senate.gov/download/re ... age-limits
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 18th, 2018, 1:32 pm

"you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink"
?
You are not a horse, Cuch, aren't you?
Notice the double quotes. I tend to look for my own watering holes.
 
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AlexEro
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 28th, 2018, 7:46 am

So-called periodicity-examination was a core method of decrypting and decyphering from the very beginning. True period can not be found by Fourier methods.
For example:
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.10 ... 03452-1_17
"Periodicity Examination"
in
"Decrypted Secrets. Methods and Maxims of Cryptology"
http://www.springer.com/la/book/9783540245025

Pretty obvious that James Simons and RenTec (to be presise Mr. Berlekamp) started their build of trading system by deducting periods in a stream of price quotes by traditional ASTROPHYSICS methods of finding periodicities. See Karl Stumpff's books.
Last edited by AlexEro on February 28th, 2018, 8:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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AlexEro
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 28th, 2018, 8:01 am

"James Simons’s Foundation Starts New Institute for Computing, Big Data"
"Computers have been a fixture for decades in astrophysics and many other fields of science.... "
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/22/scie ... ation.html
Also:
Jim Simons, the Numbers King
"I first visited the Flatiron Institute in June. Although the official opening was still a few months away, the lobby was complete. It had that old-but-new look of expensively renovated interiors; every scratch in the building’s history had been polished away. Near the entrance hangs a Chagall-like painting, “Eve and the Creation of the Universe,” by Aviva Green. Green’s son happened to be spending the year at the institute, as a fellow in astrophysics. “Every day, he walks into the lobby and sees his mother’s picture,” Jim Simons, the institute’s founder, told me."
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017 ... mbers-king
Also:
"Simons has hired astrophysicists, biologists, neuroscientists and mathematicians to work on projects that include developing medical treatments linked to DNA and understanding how the brain controls behaviour."
https://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-e ... enaissance
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: RenTech: using artificial intelligence to morph one trading strategy into another?

February 28th, 2018, 5:33 pm

What's the ;punch line?