I am curious how you can do Monte Carlo simulation of an option without simulating the underlying?
I would never consider that, it would be needless complicated.
Maybe I am not on the same page with you guys.
In my mind, given initial stock price S0, I simulate 1000 paths for the stock price, time step = 1 day (to make it simple).
Then, at each time step t (t = 1, 2, 3, ... ), I have 1000 stock prices, one price for one path: S(t, 1), S(t, 2), S(t, 3), S(t, 4), ......, S(t, 1000).
So, to get the call price for next day, I have 1000 stock prices. They are S(1, 1), S(1, 2), S(1, 3), S(1, 4), ......, S(1, 1000).
From here, I am trying to figure out what underlying price (S1) I should use from the 1000 stock prices to do simulation again to get the call price.
Should I take the average, i.e., S1 = mean{S(1, 1), S(1, 2), S(1, 3), S(1, 4), ......, S(1, 1000)}?
If so, I only need to do the simulation once to get the call price for next day.
Another way in my mind is:
From each point on the next day: S(1, 1), S(1, 2), S(1, 3), S(1, 4), ......, S(1, 1000), do simulation to get call price C(1, 1), C(1, 2), C(1, 3), C(1, 4), ......, C(1, 1000). In other words,
From S(1,1) do simulation to get call price C(1,1)
From S(1,2) do simulation to get call price C(1,2)
From S(1,3) do simulation to get call price C(1,3)
:
:
:
From S(1,1000) do simulation to get call price C(1,1000).
So, in total, I need to do 1000 simulations on the next day.
Then, the call price for next day C1 = mean{ C(1, 1), C(1, 2), C(1, 3), C(1, 4), ......, C(1, 1000)}.
Please let me know what I am mis-understanding here! I am here ask for help!
Please be nice, do not laugh at me!