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Process for Developing a Pricing Model?

February 15th, 2018, 3:07 pm

Hello,

There is a product that I want to develop a pricing model for.  I don't really have a solid quantitative background, but intuitively, I have a couple ideas on how to price it.  For example, pricing it can be based off the binary option pricing model, plus a few small adjustments specific for this product.   The other idea, which also makes intuitive sense, is to use some sort of spread on option pricing models. 

What are the next steps to take to see if this model is actually a good way to price the product?  Should I do some sort of regression analysis and if so, what type of regression should I look at.  Or is there an even better statistical tool to use? How do I confidently say, hey, this model is a good way to price this product - basically to verify my intuition?  How do the PhD guys do it, i.e. build models from scratch?  Is there a term for stuff like this so I can do further reading?

Thanks!
 
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Gamal
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Joined: February 26th, 2004, 8:41 am

Re: Process for Developing a Pricing Model?

February 15th, 2018, 4:56 pm

I don't really have a solid quantitative background

(...)

What are the next steps to take to see if this model is actually a good way to price the product? 
 Have a solid quantitative background.
 
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katastrofa
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Re: Process for Developing a Pricing Model?

February 16th, 2018, 3:30 pm

 
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MHill
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Joined: February 26th, 2010, 11:32 pm

Re: Process for Developing a Pricing Model?

February 19th, 2018, 12:15 pm

I'd suggest not trusting your intuition. 
You need to completely take your product apart.  What are the expected cashflows of the product?  What can influence those cashflows, and how?
If your product is a derivative based on an underlying instrument, do you understand the underlying?  Again, what are the cashflows on the underlying?  How are they valued?  What can change that will impact their value?
Once you think you know what the cashflows are, and what can influence their valuation, check with someone else.  You want to be sure that what you are doing is theoretically correct.
 
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Gamal
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Joined: February 26th, 2004, 8:41 am

Re: Process for Developing a Pricing Model?

February 19th, 2018, 12:38 pm

Model development is not a job for amateurs.