June 29th, 2004, 3:32 pm
Graeme,Could you please develop your thoughts on implied (correlations) and historical volatility?I'm planning to extract implied correlations and spot volatility from forward option prices, using the formula sigma_implied(T)^2 = sigma_spot^2 + sigma_dom_int(t, T)^2 + sigma_for_int(t, T)^2 - 2*corr_spot_for*sigma_spot*sigma_for_int(t, T) - 2*corr_spot_dom*sigma_spot*sigma_dom_int(t, T) + 2*corr_dom_for*sigma_dom_int(t, T)*sigma_dom_int(t, T).Probably unreadable... But the spot volatility (sigma_spot) and the correlations are assumed to be constant while the interest rate volatilities (bond prices) are assumed to be dependent on time period.Here the bond price volatilities are to be estimated using historical prices, while the implied forward option volatilities are used on the left-hand side. Hence I'm mixing historical volatility and implied volatility to attain some sort of implied spot volatility and implied correlations, how do you feel about this?I'm doing it this way to avoid estimating correlations since I'm told this can be tricky/uncertain. But now the outcome is very sensitive to my estimation of historical bond price volatility....Of course anyone can comment.