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MobPsycho
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Joined: March 20th, 2002, 2:53 pm

The Future of Equity Analysis: A Decoder Machine?

July 9th, 2002, 6:51 pm

Okay, so it's been shown that the face-to-face pipeline - and even the explicit paper-publishing pipeline - aren't as reliable a way to get fundamental information about corporations as maybe they once were.But the question is, will such information even be transmitted in its fully-expanded form at all, in the future? Or will the data come in compressed, and modulated onto some horribly complex multiplexed signal?Meaning, will it require a decoder machine to extract balance-sheet information out of some 1-dimensional oscillating signal? Will we stop talking to each other, and revert completely to morse-code decoding?I'm writing this because I am a cross between bored, and amazed, at the ability of my collection process to extract determinants of market direction. It crunches all this data, and makes sense of it somehow!So, I can't help but wonder, is this the type of machine that will someday tell me IBM's earnings outlook? Will I have to develop a process, write a program, and then burn 10 trillion processor cycles, before it spits out:---IBM-Q4-11-cents---This transmission and extraction process is like CDMA technology, but a thousand times more compressed. And produced by evolution, not design! Are IBM's earnings in here already, I just need more MHz?It's a huge tradeoff between local processor power, and the flexibility of a larger topology connecting them. Bigger economizing decoders equals lower necessary bandwidth equals a more flexible interconnection. So, the final question then, is will the machine even tell me what IBM's Q4 outlook is, or will it leave me out and just go about its business, only occasionally incorporating me, and taking my input, in ways I can't fathom?MP
 
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ricardo
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Joined: July 28th, 2001, 1:21 pm

The Future of Equity Analysis: A Decoder Machine?

July 20th, 2002, 3:35 pm

Well, about the first part of your comment: "will such information even be transmitted in its fully-expanded form at all, in the future? Or will the data come in compressed, and modulated onto some horribly complex multiplexed signal?Meaning, will it require a decoder machine to extract balance-sheet information out of some 1-dimensional oscillating signal? Will we stop talking to each other, and revert completely to morse-code decoding?"Well, it is a very interesting question, but before you say that, wouldn´t it be better you ask something about the quality of its inputs? The point is that nowadays, with these big crashes in the capital market, it seems that the attention is not over how it would be transmitted, but mainly, over the quality of what you intend to transmit.well, speciffically about your thoughts, the most important thing to be considered, according to most people is related to the reliability of the outputs of the system. As maybe as well wether u disclosure information through uni-bi-...n-dimension form, as studied by Ijiri, or by myself in my thesis.