September 30th, 2004, 2:00 am
Consider these 2 situations:1a You go long a binary option on a stock-index, and it costs you X -- it's a cash-or-nothing option. If the stock-index trades past your level by expiration, the broker/dealer/market-maker (say UBS) pays out Y to you. If not, there is no payout and you lose the entire premium X.1b You bet with a betting house (say William Hill) that by the end of the next English Premier League season, Arsenal will have won at least 60% of their games, and you pay X for the bet. At the end of next season, William Hill pays out Y to you if this is true, or nothing if this is false.2a You go long a double-barrier no-touch on USD/GBP, and it costs you X. If the FX touches either barrier during the life of the contract, you lose your bet. If the FX stays within the barriers by expiration, the payout is Y.2b You pay X on a bet that the final 2 teams competing for the next European Championships won't involve either Barcelona or AC Milan. You lose your bet if either team advances to the final 2, but the payout is Y if both lose during the semi-finals or earlier.Doesn't this prove that options-trading is mathematically/analytically equivalent gambling ? Are they morally equivalent, considering that William Hill is a "reputable" gambling firm ?Here's an idea: you diversify your capital among several "bets": USD/GBP, EUR/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, USD/JPY, crude oil, English Premier League, Italian Serie A, European Championship .... etc ... no correlation between FX and football matches ... no correlation between crude oil and AC Milan or Real Madrid ... you can use a variety of options including vanilla, single and double barrier .... portfolio diversification reduces risk ..... you either win or lose depending on FX and stock levels .... you either win or lose depending on how Arsenal or Inter perform .... I think I am in love with CAPM ... in love with portfolio diversification ... in love with exotic options ... with structured derivatives ... with human creativity in structuring bets for the clients ... and for myself or yourself .... and with the service-friendly William Hill ... what do you think ?? Let's hear it on this board !