Some people who click on this blather might wonder, what is trend trading, and why are people so excited about it compared to other methods of valuing investment prices? Scientifically, I think I can go out on a limb and say either trend trading works, or nothing works. And the reason why, might simply be the impossibility of knowing what works. But let's consider an example.Suppose 100% of people believe it is scientifically correct to pay 20 times earnings for a stock. Now suppose a pocket of people forms within that population, who believe that 15 times earnings is scientifically correct. The exponential growth in the 15-times pocket will tend to be serially correlated, causing stocks to fall as they gradually overtake the population.As the exponential displacement of 20-ers by 15-ers, trends, a new population of people who simply believe stocks will go down will be spawned. The stocks-go-down-ers will be right for a time, until somebody else is selected then killed. But no matter who grows or dies or why, it will always tend to grow and decay gradually, as with all processeses in nature.You say, what if you are right, what if 15 times earnings happens to be correct? Won't that work better than trend trading? Yes, of course it will. But that just relocates the problem, from knowing what to pay for stocks, to knowing how to discover what to pay for stocks. Again, some people will fall into one method of discovery, others into another, with no self-determination.I can look and say, oh, if I had bought international stocks in 1985, I would have made money. But that is different from saying, in 1985, I could have been exposed to the stimuli to even get the idea to buy international stocks! Ultimately, your brain is a neural network imprint, and reflects nothing more than some narrow subset of possible stimuli, not some broader truth.And so, given that the stimuli you are adjacent to, you share in common with other people, even if you do figure out the scientifically correct price to pay for stocks, they will still trend, as more and more people figure this out. And, moreover, you will execute no free will over the timing of your discovery, and whether you happen to fall at the front or back of the pack.MP