August 7th, 2002, 4:40 pm
I think MobPsycho made a good point. Many people have more faith in Monte Carlo, because it's often easier to understand. And I can cite many examples of quants who worked for weeks on analytic models, only to find that the actual computation was simulated anyway.It's unfortunately easy to make big dollar errors with either approach. With an analytic model you can make a mistake in your derivation or make an innocent-looking assumption that kills you. With Monte Carlo you can either (a) use too low a dimension and miss a crucial pricing parameter or (b) use too high a dimension and get lost.My general answer would be if you understand your underlying better than your derivative, Monte Carlo is good. If you understand your derivative better than your underlying, analytic is good. In most cases, where you understand neither very well, use both or be sorry.Here are some answers I think are bad:(1) If I can solve it, use analytic, otherwise simulate. Even if you can't write down a closed form solution, you should be able to come up with a good approximation with calculable error (these are often very complicated functions). So you should always be able to choose either method. Too many people are so proud of an analytic solution that they use them when they shouldn't.(2) Go with whichever one you're better at. Quants have to be proficient at both.(3) Go with the one that the (non-quant) customer wants. They haven't a clue. You can always dress one up to look like the other ("oh, I'm not simulating there, I'm adding terms in a power series"). You have to put out a model you believe in because you're going to make a lot of mistakes and they might as well be your own. You can learn from your own mistakes.