May 3rd, 2005, 4:33 pm
There are three cases:a) you know what the market smile is, and then a weighted least squares (weighted because vols away from the ATM point are usually less well-known than near the money vols) sufficesb) other market participants know the smile, but you don't ... if you can find a friend to give you a snap shot of the smiles on a given day, you can fit the SABR parameters, and then hope that rho and volvol stay the same, even as the ATM vol changes; otherwise go to (c) belowc) no one knows the smile: in some currencies, the vol market is not developed enough for smiles to be agreed on. In this case there are too good guesses: i) using a CEV model with a guessed exponent (1/3?) ii) using a CEV model with different exponents for below the money strikes and above the money strikes. Popular is exponent 0 (normal model) for small strikes and exponent 1 (log normal model) for larger strikes1