February 18th, 2005, 10:30 am
ah yes - recent vol levls - a topic of many beers!my take on it is this: low interest rates have caused people to search for yield. yield hungry people only get yield one way: taking risk. a common way to take risk is to write options. this was discussed in depth on another thread, but there has been a huge amount of OTM stock call option writing by non-delta hedgers. the delta hedgers were buyers as vol got crushed and crushed. very many desks have been long of vol, and one lesson i have learned in my years of trading is to avoid very crowded trades. if everyone (meaning delta hedgers or dealers or hedge funds) has the same position, there is a big added risk in putting it on. that is because these players (unlike long-only stock funds) are leveraged, and will at some point have to exit the position if things go badly.imagine a big room with a small door totally packed with people. suddenly the lights go out and someone yells "it's a bomb! oh my god!" you get the point - getting out all at the same time will not be possible and many will be injured!people have written options also on FX and bonds, but in far less size. options on credit look too cheap to write (though the vols are fairly high compared to historical).we have been deallocated to vol trading, apart from the occasional dispersion trade, equity-credit trade, or my favourite trade, buying puts on realised variance.my view is that the combination of low interest rates and low vols is kind of like time itself slowing down (like in general relativity)! so things happen more and more slowly and when news comes out stocks go straight to their new level with no extra wiggling around, etc. as time goes more slowly, hedge fund returns get lower and clients ask them to step up the risk level so they can get more returns, or they arrange a leveraged account with the HF manager directly. you can see how stresses build up in this scenario. i don't expect signficant stock market vol increases until 2006. i do expect traders to keep buying and buying vol, thereby driving it lower and lower.