May 3rd, 2005, 5:23 am
QuoteOriginally posted by: Proptraderhttp://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050418/dam087.html?.v=1Comments? Am I missing something. Thanks.Well, I am not an 'arb', but your post made me read some of the news announcements on this one.Based solely on those, my prediction is: the stock will open, post-tender, down $1.60 from the previous close. Why? Two reasons. First, your quoted story omits the part about the $1.60 of 'foregone' dividends.So, my first reaction was that the market will treat this like a $1.60 ex-dividend event. Second, accepting this scenario then puts my expected profit (unleveraged) at about $0.60 per share or 0.75% based on today's close, which seems plausible for a 3-4 week hold. Of course, losses are quite possible under a lower open, andthey can't be removed with puts (although some extreme losses could be made less extreme). So it's certainly not a free lunch. Is it 'easy money'? - well, annualized, it seems in the range of an 'ordinary' equity-type risk to me. What's your arithmetic? regards,
Last edited by
Alan on May 2nd, 2005, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.