June 23rd, 2005, 2:12 am
You could say the same thing about bonds. Suppose I buy a corporate bond with a 5% yield, and short a 3% cash-flow-matched treasury bond. I receive 2% per year on the face amount, with zero net investment. If the spread on the corporate bond widens, I haven't lost any money, I still get my 2%. If I try to exit my position, however, I have to do it at a loss. If I keep my position, the market is telling me there is a greater probability of default loss.If you sell the equity tranche and buy delta hedged index protection, you're making a correlation assumption. If the equity tranche spread narrows relative to the index, the market is telling you correlations have gone up. You are no longer delta hedged. You will have mark to market losses as overall implied default probabilities go up and gains as they go down. If you exit your position, you will take a loss. If you hold on, you risk a large loss if several defaults occur, something the market told you was more likely than you suspected when you entered into the position.As a practical matter, the CDX Tranches are so complicated that the simple story above is misleading. But the general principle applies.
Last edited by
Aaron on June 22nd, 2005, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.