October 7th, 2006, 12:51 pm
I'm not sure exactly what you mean but here's an approach.I assume you have already written an option pricer. If not, you have to start with that. I'm going to assume you've made it a formula so BS(S,E,v,r,t,P) gives the price of a put on an underlying with spot price S, exercise price E, volatility v, risk-free interest rate r, time to expiry t and "P" tells me it's a put. Delta(S,E,v,r,t,P) gives me the delta (expressed as a negative number for a put).Next you want to simulate a series of future price movements of the underlying. You might or might not want to assume that your pricing implied volatility was correct; or that the price follows the Black-Scholes assumptions. Assuming you want to see performance if the assumptions are correct (in which case, the P&L results from the fact that you hedge at discrete intervals rather than continuously), you could"Put 0 in cell A1, A1 + d in A2, where d is the time interval between hedge rebalancing, and copy it down until the value in the cell equals t. Or you could use nonconstant time intervals.Put S in cell b1, then in B2 S*exp(r*(A2-A1) + v*(A2-A1)^0.5*normsinv(rand())). Copy that down to the end.Put BS(S,E,v,r,t,P) in C1 (I assume you sold the put). In C2, put C1 + Delta(B1,E,v,r,t,P)*(C2 - C1) and copy that down to the end. This assumes you do a naive hedge and don't update your parameters during the life of the option.The last number in C is you P&L from selling the put and hedging it. Subtract Max(0,Bn - E) for the payout you have to make on the put you sold. The result is your profit (loss if negative) from selling the put and hedging it.
Last edited by
Aaron on October 6th, 2006, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.