A Hezbollah “Victory”?By Bernard Haykel - asharq alwast Conclusion:"So what of Hezbollah's psychological victory and is it merely illusory? The experience of much more powerful nations than the Arab ones, like Germany and Japan, indicate that this “victory” will amount to nothing stronger than a spider’s web. The only real victory for any people in the modern world is to educate themselves and to compete with other nations not on the field of battle but in the spheres of industry, ideas and innovation. We must ask ourselves how many of the most brilliant and accomplished Arab minds will leave Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East to work in the West as a result of this conflict? With each emigrant, the Arab and Muslim worlds are losing a battle to the West. And the legacy for the Arabs and Muslims will be destruction and heart-rending loss of innocent life."

QuoteOriginally posted by: somorA Hezbollah “Victory”?By Bernard Haykel - asharq alwast Conclusion:"So what of Hezbollah's psychological victory and is it merely illusory? The experience of much more powerful nations than the Arab ones, like Germany and Japan, indicate that this “victory” will amount to nothing stronger than a spider’s web. The only real victory for any people in the modern world is to educate themselves and to compete with other nations not on the field of battle but in the spheres of industry, ideas and innovation. We must ask ourselves how many of the most brilliant and accomplished Arab minds will leave Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East to work in the West as a result of this conflict? With each emigrant, the Arab and Muslim worlds are losing a battle to the West. And the legacy for the Arabs and Muslims will be destruction and heart-rending loss of innocent life."I completely agree with the quotation you are presenting here that this conflict is a great loss for Lebanon since it will lead to another exodus of qualified people. I find this future exodus all the more dangerous since it will fragilize Lebanon's equilibrium (I assume that there will be more Christians than Shiites on the leaving...).But on antoher hand it is also a clear victory for Hezbollah, since it obtained what I believe was his real goal. For some years after Israeli withdrawal in 2000, Hezbollah was a sort of "sacred" party that no one could afford to criticize and no one of its privileges could be questionned... More recently, the 14 March forces gained enough popular support to feel strong enough to desacralize Hezbollah's position and Hassan Nasrallah could become subject to criticism almost as any other party leader in Lebanon. But, as a result of Israel's crazy behaviour, Hezbollah is now untouchable again. Even if it looks today condamned to be disarmed in middle term, politically it is stronger than it has ever been. This "victory claim" affair is the highest proof. I do not believe that any of Lebanese political leaders really believe that Hezbollah gained a military victory over Israel, but Hezbollah's support is now so strongt that even Walid Jumblatt is obligated to speak about Nasrallah's "victory".So, I would said that yes, Hezbollah (not Lebanon) is the clear victorious of the conflict, mostly thanks to Israeli and Western blindedness in refusing to take into account the particularities of Lebanon's internal politics. And the only way to correct this would be to allow a UN resolution from which Sanyoura could claim himself "victory" in having recovered Lebanese national honor by diplomatic means, but according to the draft project it seems that it will not be the case.

QuoteSo, I would said that yes, Hezbollah (not Lebanon) is the clear victorious of the conflict, mostly thanks to Israeli and Western blindedness in refusing to take into account the particularities of Lebanon's internal politicsAbsolutely.They have the courage of a lion and the cunning of a fox, while their foe in the battle field, so to speak, has the courage of a sheep and the power of a dragon.QuoteAnd the only way to correct this would be to allow a UN resolution from which Sanyoura could claim himself "victory" in having recovered Lebanese national honor by diplomatic means, but according to the draft project it seems that it will not be the caseAt the end of the road he might be the victor, only if he'll get the Shebaa farm back under the Lebanese sovereignty.