October 26th, 2006, 7:45 am
There are any number of plausible explanations for downward sloping skew in implied vols for stocks - none of them are particularly rigorous, however, nor are they mutually exclusive.One is just supply and demand - those who are long stock and who wish to hedge are natural call sellers (for income) and put buyers (for protection.) All other things being equal, this would tend to drive OTM call implieds down, and puts up.Another explanation hinges on the well-known inverse relationship between ATM implied vol and the price of the underlying - as the underlying goes up, ATM vol tends to decline. The skew can be interpreted as the markets expectation of what ATM implied vol will be if the underlying rallies or declines to the level of the OTM call or put strike price.Finally, to a certain degree the skew (or smile) is an artifact of the way implieds are calculated. Implieds are commonly calculated using models which explicitly or implicitly assume a normal (or log-normal) distribution, despite the fact that underlying returns are not normally distributed. If you build an option-pricing model which can incorporate non-normal distributions, you may find the skew (or smile) is much less pronounced.I hope this is helpful.