November 23rd, 2006, 2:29 pm
The correlation depends on the time frame.. In the late 90s spreads were negatively correlated with USTs. As Treasuries rallied, spreads widened to compensate, and all-in yields moved significantly less than Treasury ylds. (Consequently, swaption vol traded a lot lower than UST vol)Over the past 5-7 yrs, however, swaps have gone from being a credit instrument to the primary interest rate liquidity instrument. The was partially the result of reduced Treasury supply, and the resulting repo "problems," but also the result of a maturing swap market with a number of credit mitigating factors. Over the past 5-7 yrs, swap spreads have been positively correlated with Treasury yields. When mkt participant want to get long the mkt, they will buy USTs AND receive on swaps, compressing both.