May 16th, 2007, 9:31 pm
Very interesting paper. In my previous job we developed a similar model to exclude unrealistic curve shapes, given the current state of the economy, while preserving no arbitrage.I dont think the world is ready yet for this line of thought...maybe hedge funds may adopt it for better relative value analysis. On-the-desk modelling at sell-side institutions is, unfortunately, dominated by brainy science types who have an aversion against putting "fuzzy" economics into "precise" models.KLEON:To answer your question...the bank (probably) hedged most of the risks away at the beginning (and dynamically rebalances to this day). There is no trick. The client, for whatever reason, believes it is a good idea to buy this structured note. Clients generally do not hedge...this happens for many reasons, most notably because if they had the models, they would just buy the underlying vanillas themselves. Other reasons may be investment constraints (they cannot buy vanilla derivatives...but they can buy funky bonds, as long as they look like bonds). In any case, the bank charges the client a spread for taking on the risk and for having to manage the deal in the future. Without the spread, the structure may well have sold at 92! Now it is up to the exotics desk at the bank to "protect" this 2 point upfront margin throughout the life of the deal, until it matures. To do this, the desk will go into the vanilla market and hedge the rates risk, the vega, and the correlation risk of the 2-10 spread.