July 25th, 2012, 11:17 am
Hi all,I've worked on this model for a while and I've seen quite some "instabilities", but I don't think it is a fundamental problem. As far as I can see, it's mostly related to the quality of the implied volatility surface. If you start from a good implied volatility surface, you get a good local volatility. But of course the question is what good means and how to get such a surface.If you want more details I can suggest these notes I put onlinehttp://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2112819http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1779463The first is about the hybrid Dupire model and it's focused on the hybrid calibration, so there's probably too much in there, but you will find some comments about the implied volatility surface and a few tricks and formulas that are relevant for the non-hybrid version (which I guess is the one you're talking about).The second reference shows you an example of implied volatility (IV) surface that tends to give good local volatilities (at least in my opinion, which is why I wrote those notes).But without going into the details of these notes, I'd say the key is to get an IV surface that is smooth enough and that satisfies the non-arbitrage properties as much as possible. What you describe, pablogarciaj, looks similar to what I have experienced when using bad IVs. The denominator in Dupire's formula is basically proportional to the probability density. So it's supposed to be a strictly positive number. But if your implied volatility surface does not satisfy non-arbitrage (which, in particular, requires strict positivity of the density), then your denominator can be equal to 0 or even negative, which makes your local vol blow up or just become non-existent.You can see other kinds of problems happening. For example, your numerator may become negative, which would signal an other form of arbitrage. Also, even if you satisfy non-arbitrage, if your implied vol moves too much because you start from a strongly irregular market and you fit everything, then your IV will also shows lack of smoothness, and when you differentiate it, well, you can guess what happens.So the key is the IV surface. It's pretty difficult to find an IV surface satisfying all smoothness and non-arbitrage conditions, while at the same time having a good fit to the market data and being intuitive. The second reference I give you above produces a nice IV in my opinion, but it doesn't satisfy all the above requirements. In particular if you want something that satisfies the non-arbitrage in the strike direction, you should look at the mixtures of log normals. But what I use in the second reference is based on Gatheral's SVI surface, which, although not guaranteed to be free of strike arbitrage, comes pretty close to it in practice.sebgur