Based on his review of analogue years, our trade floor meteo guy predicts that the gulf coast will experience 4 severe hurricanes over the next 100 days. Provide a range of probabilities of 2 or fewer hurricanes, expressed as lower and upper bound???

QuoteOriginally posted by: nrhiatiBased on his review of analogue years, our trade floor meteo guy predicts that the gulf coast will experience 4 severe hurricanes over the next 100 days. Provide a range of probabilities of 2 or fewer hurricanes, expressed as lower and upper bound???This is simple as .More seriously, it seems like the problem rests on far too many assumptions. What does it mean that he predicts there will be four severe hurricanes over the next one-hundred days? Does that mean there is a 50% chance of such? What's the variance? Are hurricanes independent? (Almost surely not because hurricanes are systemically correlated to certain local humidity conditions, ocean temperatures , El Niño/La Niña, etc.) What's the correlation? Does it change as more hurricanes occur? Etc.

hi nrhiati, do you know the answer or the way