December 10th, 2007, 5:36 pm
QuoteOriginally posted by: rishikuIf I understand the explanation being offered here, all jobs have an element of 'dead-end' built in them. For example, any financial product or system or even programming language may go out of fashion. But general skills tend not to go out of fashion. In particular, if you are really, really good in one OOP, then it won't be that difficult for you to be moderately good in another, which means that it isn't that bad to make the transitionQuoteThe probability of a currently in-fashion job becoming a 'dead-end' job in 5 years may be 50% (The probability experts here can confirm this).The probability that your current job will be obsolete in 5 years is about 90%. If you are constantly learning new stuff, and if the company you are working at encourages you to learn new stuff, then in five years, you'll be doing whatever that new job is. This is even the case with programming languages. C++, 5 years from now, will be different is some major ways from C++ today. QuoteI think it is also possible that a job like database administration may be considered a 'dead-end' job, but someone who likes it may end up innovating a new database admin process or system because of the new demands from client industry(s) even though the database technologies have reminaed the same.Unfortunately no, and that is why database administration tends to be somewhat of a "dead end." The new database admin processes and systems are developed by people other than the database administrators. You have vendors come up with new database systems and then push them down, and the admins take whatever the vendors give them. Also "new" and "innovative" tend to be dirty words to database people (a good thing). Migrating a production database to a new platform easily can take five to ten years, and even upgrading a database to a new version can take three to six months.