February 20th, 2008, 7:28 pm
Lets assume you fund in USD at Libor and the Libor curve is flat at 3% 1 year out. You borrow 1Million USD and convert the cash at the current spot FX rate to XXX currency at a rate of 50, which gives you 50Millon XXX. The XXX currency is a restricted currency and the government wont allow you to invest in fixed income or money market instruments. You plan on keeping your cash for 1 year in XXX currency and engage in derivative transactions. To hedge the FX risk you sell a 1 year NDF non-deliverable forward contract. Currently the domestic interest rates are 15% with a flat curve 1 year out. You sell the NDF at an implied rate of 1.5%. As a foreigner, you will earn 0% if the 50Million XXX is kept in a domestic bank. If the cash is kept in the domestic bank you will hence have a 1.5% loss after 1 year. Now the question is, assuming you use the 50Million XXX to engage in equity, derivative, futures transaction all traded domestically and denominated in XXX, which discount rate should be applied when deriving Fair Value of these instruments?