August 25th, 2008, 9:00 am
The point is well-made: all you really care about is the 'gains process.' Discounted gains processes are still q-martingales. If you were to consider only the stock/index/whatever that pays dividends and attempted to discount it by the MMA to make it a martingale under q-measure, you would be violating Girsanov. The whole idea of setting the MMA as the numeraire is to create a new measure where the underlying process is a zero-drift process (in terms of the numeraire). Under the p-measure (the world in which we actually live), the numeraire is money itself--dollars and cents. In the new measure, we're pricing everything in terms of their worth as multiples of the money market account.If you understand that a non-dividend-paying diffusion process is a martingale under Q, then you must see that a dividend-paying diffusion process cannot be. Why? Simply, when a stock pays dividends, it pays them out of the equity tied up in the stock. Ergo, the stock price falls after the payment of a dividend by exactly the value of the dividend payment. Of course this changes the drift of the entire process. This is what was meant by the comment stating that dividend payments are not random. Conceptually, if I know that my process will certainly drift downward at specified dates (the dividend payment dates), it's certainly not random. As such, its drift at those dates would not be matched appropriately by the MMA.In the end, if you consider the gains process (the stock plus the dividend), then you CAN discount by the MMA, and from the above discussion, I should hope you see why.