November 24th, 2008, 4:15 pm
I think what we have here is a classic example of Real option theory.The prop ship gig contains 3 useful options which may turn out to have value at expiration:1: They offer a real job2: They don't offer but you have 6 months experience close to the money. Opinions vary about the utility of experience in prop ships, but the average is pretty good.3: Someone offers you a good job whilst employed at the PS.I reject your analysis of the analytics outfit for several reasons:1: No one is all that stable these days. Actually they never were. I'm old enough to be your father and although that's old it's not that old, and I've seen household names die more than enough.2: It actually doesn't matter if they are stable. What matters is the stability of your job. Successful "stable" firms every so often re-focus, or restructure or get bought, or buy another outfit.3: Yes, there is a possible option later on to be a consultant. That is true in all lines of work, most people aren't consultants, there is a reason for that. Do you even want to be a consultant ?Forget the fact that you invested 4-5 years in your PhD, it's gone, and it ain't coming back. You are where you are. Your past bought you a one way ticket to where you are.If the R&D is the best option looking forward then take it.You have not shared your risk aversion function ?Do you have dependents ? Big debts ? In my experience 90% of freshly minted quants have no huge reason to fear a period of seriously compromised income.But you may be in the 10%, if so the R&D could make sense.Because I'm a cynic, I'd counsel you to think hard and long about whether the "intern" position is not 100% the real story.Maybe they want some grunt work done cheap ? I know far too little to assign a probability here, but it does happen.It's also worth allowing for the fact that you're a newbie, and thus you don't have any good way of evaluating what is being said by either offer.