January 25th, 2009, 5:59 am
I bet you've done quite a research on this topic, and I believe your method is feasible. However, it seems a little bit devious using estimated short rates to estimate Vasicek model. Firstly, this might induce seriously deflected estimates since estimated short rates might've contained systematic errors; Secondly, it has been advocated for a while not employing N-S model to capture the over time dynamics of forward curve, because it has been proved (Filipovic (2000)) that N-S is not compatible with any nontrivial term structure of interest rate models, the over time dynamics results from N-S might be problematic. And we could avoid these problems by directly estimating Vasicek model from zero bond prices (or LIBOR&Swap rates), since based on Vasicek model we have closed form expression for bond prices. Equating the model prices to the market data in terms of least square will give you the parameter estimates (including the market price of risk parameter).