August 12th, 2009, 2:02 am
ahw101,I am admittedly an addict when it comes to finance and Math but I am really bad at it. So my explanations might not be 100% correct but since I work with intuition, it might help.GBM: if you see that dS/S = constant + symmetrical noise (a normal distribution. Then you can make a guess that the solution has to be something with exp() - this is the only way that the derivative can be constant. This has always been my starting point in understanding this. It also implies that only the ln() of the function is normally distributed since e^(N(u,s)) is lognormal. You can then proceed and use statistics knowledge and realise that when the expected value of a lognormal process is exp(mu+s^2/2) but you want an expected value (arbitrage free) of the stock price that is S*exp(mu), all you need to do is take the (s^2/2) away from the mu. No need for Ito's lemma!Ornstein Uhlenbeck: There are some nice write ups on how to solve this. there is no guesswork needed but some knowledge of how functions and their diffs/integrls behave. This is quite a slog to do but even I can do it! So do not give up!cheers,Alk