May 28th, 2003, 12:50 pm
No zip file.While my position is likely a matter of having only a hammer, and so thinking that every problem is a nail, I think that employee options would best be expensed in a manner similar to pension plans (did I mention that I'm a pension actuary?).With pension plans, a valuation is made (actually, several valuations are made to serve different purposes, mostly related to differing taxation, contribution, and accounting requirements) based upon assumptions that are at turns market-dependent and particular to the sponsoring company, and these assumptions have to be fairly clearly stated, albeit maybe less clearly than I'd like. Many of the accounting assumptions are pretty much set in stone due to FASB instructions and requirements. In particular, the discount rate for pension liabilities is to be based upon high quality corporate bonds with maturities similar to the pension liabilities, and when you look at the discount rate used by different companies, it is very consistent -- very close to 6.75% for 2002.Other assumptions, particularly the expected rate of return on assets, are much more subjective, and sometimes the assumptions made are just plain stooopid -- expected annual rates of return of 9.5% last year are not uncommon. But they are at least reported, and so it is pretty straight-forward to eliminate the effect of stupidity in assumptions. (There is also debate about what basis should be used for the return on assets, but that's another matter.)Similarly, I think that employee options should just be valued with a clear statement of assumptions used. I'd prefer that non-vested options be proportionally expensed, based upon how many are expected eventually to become vested based upon assumptions about rates of termination of employment and that the optimal exercise date from the perspective of employees (who after all are the ones deciding when to exercise) be assumed, but I can appreciate arguments for other treatments.In any case, the assumptions should be clearly stated. Probably the most contentious assumption would be the volatility. I'd ideally want to see an assumed volatility that is less than the implied volatility of traded options or historical volatility, to reflect that the options are freely hedged with treasury stock, but others might disagree, and in any case there is no good answer that I know of to the question of how much less the volatility assumption for expensing employee options should be, and what are good reasons for varying it more or less for a given company. But if the assumption used is clearly stated, anyone who thinks a different assumption would be better will have at least an idea of how much and in which direction the expense quoted should be adjusted to meet his ideal valuation assumptions.