March 18th, 2010, 8:19 am
"Bureaucratic" is not the word I'd use to describe RBS at this time, and as it happens I've done consultancy for the government and will assure you that no part of the British civil service is in anyway like RBS.My problem is that I genuinely don't understand what the fuck iis going on there. When younger I was a a bit of a plane geek, and when the first plane hit on 9/11 I foolishly said "it must have been a light aircraft because if it had been a jet, it would have fallen down by now"That's how I think about RBS.The classes of fuckup we've had so far in various banks have been a mix of dishonesty, greed and lack of leadership.But mostly done by smart people, dumb ones simply could not cause this much damage.RBS is bleeding smart people, as far as I can tell, they are simply optimising their exit strategies in a market that is not yet ideal for a move.I've seen this happen before, sometimes a business unit will lose critical staff, and even though it was profitable, has to be wound down because it can't go on with the people left behind.This can be painful to those involved, but the nature of banking is that units die often enough that there is institutional competence in dealing with it.Where my model collapses in a heap, is when you scale that up, and you don't let the business die.The UK government wants to keep RBS alive, to get back the money it put in, which means that parts of it that should be shut down, aren't.But they are no longer staffed by the right people, sometimes by people who contact me and tell me that they are not the right people.Given the self image of people in this business, you have to be very far out of your depth before you ring a HH and say you can't do your job.So what I can't yet work out is why something really bad hasn't happened at RBS, yet.