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maratikus
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Joined: January 2nd, 2008, 7:38 pm

Bayesian Linear regression

May 11th, 2011, 1:32 pm

After running OLS regressions of hedge funds' excess returns with respect to its benchmark excess return, I found that t-statistics of alpha can be unreasonably high (around 60) which could be due to short track record and noise. I would like to improve estimates of alpha and t-statistic of alpha using a Bayesian linear regression. I found a paper http://limnology.wisc.edu/regime/appendix_14jul03.pdf that gives guidance on implementation of Bayesian linear regression. I'm particularly interested in linear regression with informative prior when the prior distribution of regression parameters (alpha, beta) is multi-variate Student distribution (p 10). I am comfortable with specifying values of 0 for alpha and 1 for beta as expected values of the prior distribution. The other three inputs include the parameters covariance matrix S0, model variance s02 and degrees of freedom n0. I would appreciate any advice in how I can approach defining those in a meaningful way as well as explanation of the meaning of the model variance s02 as I don't have a clear idea of what it means.
 
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ClosetChartist
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Joined: July 17th, 2003, 4:41 pm

Bayesian Linear regression

May 11th, 2011, 6:03 pm

See Kitagawa and Gerch, "Smoothness Priors Analysis of Time Series". You will find the Monte Carlo "particle filter" algorithms especially helpful for what you are trying to do.