May 13th, 2011, 9:45 am
What kind of strategy ? Single stock or Multi stock ? Single stock you get drawdowns because your errors are become autocorrelated, ie you are continuing to guess wrong. It could mean that your forecaster has been thrown by a fat tail or something or the regime has suddenly changed, volatility, liquidity change etc. Multi stock as above, but it may also mean that you have some correlated variables in your strat so the effect is compounded. So say you have an ETF on say oil stocks, if your forecast is done separately on each stock, and then you spit out all your forecasts and then all say to go long ..... and get it wrong as in the single stock case then you'll compound the drawdown....In reality, it's a bit more complicated than that but should point you in right direction. Usually unless part of the strat, avoid putting sticky plasters on a strategy in the form of stop losses, stock cuts, options etc. Not saying they can't be used, but often they are used to desperately try and make strat look better when the focus should be on improving the model, which is the tough bit imo and you generally will be finding models that don't work over those that do.