January 7th, 2012, 3:09 pm
If you have a negative autocorrelation at lag one with financial prices, it's usually due to mismeasured prices. If you have a positive error in the price at today's close, you will have a positive error in today's return and a negative error in tomorrow's (you use two day returns, but the principle is the same). Depending on what kind of prices you have, the error could be a stale price (maybe the last trade was a 1 PM for a market than closes at 4 PM), or some days the last trade is instigated by the buyer and other days by the seller, or just an error. Any autocorrelation at lag one induces a positive autocorrelation at lag 2. If you are adjusting for this, it is not surprising to see positive and negative significant autocorrelations at lags two and three.There are statistical techniques for cleaning the data, but in my opinion they are usually harmful. The best solution is to get additional information that allows you to remove the autocorrelation without reference to the data series itself. It can be as simple as cleaning the data.