March 7th, 2013, 12:05 pm
QuoteOriginally posted by: wh408Optional stoping theorem suggests that adding a stopping rule to our portfolio won't change the expectation. Any explanation from practical, mathematical or behavioural finance perspectives?ThanksIf you find a stopping rule (based on the past and present realisations, no speculation or risk taking on the future) that will change your expectation (and keep variance in the same level) do it ! that is all, note that you are not the only guy in the market and other people will do the same and the strategy loses it effectiveness.This is not the case in reality so if you have high volumes, lot of expertise and direct access to the market you can find those "patterns" before anyone else but don't think it will be forever and you have to get also "an exit strategy". G. Sors has a good philosophical explanation on this, in markets thinking get involved in contrast to physical phenomenons (reflexivity principal), the firsts guys who get in make money, the latests lose it.From the behavioural perspective this exist, however, if this frictional propriety is only a second order effect for your business. You can suppose that they don't exist and move forward in your modelling. But if it is the basic constraint for your strategies, you must take it in account and put reserves.