July 26th, 2013, 7:43 am
When you change numeraire you are basically switching the probability measure in which you take expectations. Say you price some contract [$]C[$] with payoff [$]f(S_T)[$] in the risk neautral measure [$]\mathbb{Q}[$] where [$]B_t=e^{-rt}[$] is your numeraire:[$]C(t)/B(t)=\mathbb{E}_t[\frac{f(S_T)}{B_T}][$]Then look to re-write the expectation in a different, but equivalent, measure (denoted by a tilde). We can use any strictly positive, normalised [$]\mathbb{Q}[$] martingale [$]X_t[$], ie a Radon-Nikodym derivative, to define this new measure:[$]\tilde{\mathbb{E}}_t[Y_s]=\mathbb{E}_t[Y_s X_s]\Leftrightarrow \tilde{\mathbb{E}}_t[Y_s(X_s)^{-1}]=\mathbb{E}_t[Y_s][$]for any random variable [$]Y[$].Assuming [$]S_t/B_t[$] is a [$]\mathbb{Q}[$] martingale, we can then use [$]X_t = S_t/B_t \cdot B_0/S_0[$] and write[$]C(0)/B(0)=\tilde{\mathbb{E}}_t[\frac{f(S_T)}{B_T}\frac{B_T}{S_T}\frac{S_0}{B_0}]\Rightarrow [$][$]C(0)/S(0)=\tilde{\mathbb{E}}_t[\frac{f(S_T)}{S_T}[$]].The point of all this rambling is that your dividend paying stock over the bank account is not a [$]\mathbb{Q}[$] martingale (it drifts downwards at rate [$]d[$]), so not a valid Radon-Nikodym derivative, and cannot be used to define an equivalent measure to [$]\mathbb{Q}[$]. All we know is that all pure assets or self-funding trading strategies are [$]\mathbb{Q}[$] martingales. The dividend paying stock is not self funding as it generates dividend cashflows. Instead you would have to define a strategy, for example "hold the stock and re-invest all dividends in the stock". That vaue of that strategy is a [$]\mathbb{Q}[$] martingale and could be used as a numeraire.