http://www.businessinsider.com/kensho-b ... eet-2013-7

QuoteOriginally posted by: AnalyticalVegahttp://www.businessinsider.com/kensho-brings-t ... -7Actually this article is kind of silly, more data does not imply better analysis or decisions, you will always need people to interpret the Data.Here is my view:The information pipeline:------------------------------------------------------------Data -> Information -> Knowledge -> Wisdom------------------------------------------------------------Data - Raw numbersInformation - Data Plus Context and Metadata (Descriptive Data)Knowledge - Charts, Relationships between Datasets Wisdom - The ability to predict the future with a 'reasonable' degree of accuracy

I read this article and checked the link they had there to their seasonality analysis. If this is the quality of their tools, than good luck. It sounds like some kind of self-promotional article actually. Quote"That itself caused a lot of angry phone calls from hedge funds, because you would be surprised how many hedge funds who actually have this information, because they have statistical computing capability, trade off of this," says NadlerNo shit? My dog can do their seasonality analysis in excel using prices from Yahoo, seriously.

QuoteOriginally posted by: PositronI read this article and checked the link they had there to their seasonality analysis. If this is the quality of their tools, than good luck. It sounds like some kind of self-promotional article actually. Quote"That itself caused a lot of angry phone calls from hedge funds, because you would be surprised how many hedge funds who actually have this information, because they have statistical computing capability, trade off of this," says NadlerNo shit? My dog can do their seasonality analysis in excel using prices from Yahoo, seriously.I agree, we have nothing to worry about

And this is the end of "The Of The Quants" (whatv that means) exactly why?

BI is famous for empty content pieces and PR stuff like this. Or just being plain wrong and putting out unverified stuff as fact.

The major players still "rely on Excel" and now leapfrog into the cloud and the herds will follow?! This may be the most sophisticated financial modeling and analysis sw on the market, but I cannot believe this.(our clients are dominantly small and medium sized market participants - but they and those of our competitors do not rely on Excel (except for quick tests). And they have, and will have quant teams)

QuoteOriginally posted by: HansiBI is famous for empty content pieces and PR stuff like this. Or just being plain wrong and putting out unverified stuff as fact.I'm not familiar with this source of information, so I can't really say what BI is worth.But judging based on the "RECOMMEND FOR YOU" pop-up (bottom right), I would say their website is not optimized.

QuoteOriginally posted by: edouardQuoteOriginally posted by: HansiBI is famous for empty content pieces and PR stuff like this. Or just being plain wrong and putting out unverified stuff as fact.I'm not familiar with this source of information, so I can't really say what BI is worth.But judging based on the "RECOMMEND FOR YOU" pop-up (bottom right), I would say their website is not optimized. You don't like the recommendation?

so it's a giant backtesting spreadsheet

It is possible that "quant" has become a bad word to enough people that it will lose utility.I suspect a more positive term like "Financial Engineering", or "Converged finance" will arise.But will quant skills fade into the background ?When the crisis first bit deep, I wrote a piece about "after", called something like "Fortune seen as fate".Then as now, my view is that banks just like any other kind of business prosper when they do things well, and well in this context is a mix of manufacturing financial products, selling them and servicing the needs of clients. Like any other business they need to do quality assurance, unlike almost any other business of which am aware, quality assurance in the form of risk management, model validation etc is treated with contempt by senior management.So risk functions will grow, but they don't increase revenue.Selling is not a task where most quants relish or exhibit excellence.So that leaves product development and manufacture, which must involve quant work and since "mature product line" s a synonym for low profits, banks can only increase their income by innovation, else when governments take their life support away, they will go the way of American steel, British cars, forgotten but not gone.Inflation is coming and as interest rates rise firms will need innovative solutions and whilst we have low yields, riskier investments are looking more attractive.China's financial system is less sophisticated than that of Zimbabwe, that will change, no I do not know when, but one day you'll come into the office and every quant, structurer, QuantDev, who remembers the Chinese his grandmother taught him will be on a plane having received a very attractive offering.

The article does not say anything? about the "how" - in the cloud that's all (no Excel) ... But visiting the home page of the technology provider, I got the impression they propagate a kind of data drriven approach.Yes, IMO, an intelligent, tighter combination of computational finance and machine learning is promising. But, how? To understand this better a lot of additional quant work is needed.So, no, the era of quants does NOT end in the cloud.The quants may strike back and create powerful but minimalist systems that lead to a "supercomputer-cloud ..." crisis?

QuoteOriginally posted by: DominicConnorSo that leaves product development and manufacture, which must involve quant work and since "mature product line" s a synonym for low profits, banks can only increase their income by innovation, else when governments take their life support away, they will go the way of American steel, British cars, forgotten but not gone.McKinsey report - Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy, MGI, May 2013Discusses twelve technologies that potentially will have a major impact over the next decade on all industry sectors - including financial services.QuoteOriginally posted by: DominicConnorBut will quant skills fade into the background ?Big data, business analytics, machine learning, cloud computing, automation of knowledge work all require quantitative skills.QuoteOriginally posted by: DominicConnorInflation is coming and as interest rates rise firms will need innovative solutions and whilst we have low yields, riskier investments are looking more attractive.Perhaps - another prognosis is a global liquidity trap.

QuoteOriginally posted by: DominicConnorwhilst we have low yields, riskier investments are looking more attractive.I would bet the absolute quantity of riskier investments - which employment is based on - has gone down, as low interest rates have made investment as a whole unattractive. In the US, at least, investments have taken up a smaller percentage of the economy, and I would bet risky investments have actually dropped.Correct me if I am wrong: Since 2007, the US GDP has gone from around $13 trillion to $16 trillion, or up around 23%. In that same time, the S&P market cap has gone from around $12.5 trillion to around $15.1 trillion. That is less than 23%, so the total investment in stocks has most likely trailed the economy. US government debt has gone from $1.75 trillion to $4.5 trillion, but the Fed has increased their balance sheet from around $0.5 trillion to $3.5 trillion. Mortgage debt has probably gone sideways. So it seems when you subtract out the Fed, total private investment has probably trailed the US economy significantly.So relative to the economy as a whole - and to coincident and probably prior alternative employment opportunities - and possibly even in absolute terms, I would bet the total investment in risky assets has declined under low interest rates.

QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerCorrect me if I am wrong: Since 2007, the US GDP has gone from around $13 trillion to $16 trillion, or up around 23%. The way GDP is calulated is changing to include intangible assets. FT: Corporate investment - a mysterious divergence 7/25/13 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8177af34-eb21 ... c0.htmlOne view is that intangible investment has doubled as a share of GDP over the past 40 years.QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerSo relative to the economy as a whole - and to coincident and probably prior alternative employment opportunities - and possibly even in absolute terms, I would bet the total investment in risky assets has declined under low interest rates.A possible scenario is that investment moved offshore to emerging markets.