December 4th, 2013, 5:12 pm
Hello,As Alan said there are loads of reasons for that.As daveangel said if you are dealing with American Options, do you take into accounts dividend and what rate are you using for financing your position, is the exchange making people to pay the premium up-front, what kind of margins is it required to finance your position...I would add more specific ideas for you to be convinced:If you are using the last price of the options, then it means than the last time the options traded it was at 2.95$, but do you know exactly when it traded, do you have the exact tick data ? If you have 1sec data maybe during this sec the market move and the options didnt trade another time so you see a last which hasnt moved while the market moved.Or maybe that at the time it traded the bid/ask of the future was wide, you saying 13$, is it a Mid ?Imagine the options is ITM, so have great delta and the future price moved quickly but the market-maker didnt had the time to update his options quote before being lifted/hit, it traded as an apparent arbitrage, assuming the other guy successfully hedged his options quickly after and still you shall take into consideration the fees of the hedge.You can also have error or mistiming in your data and There really are loads of other reasons for that to happen.ex: Im on an illiquid stock(stock is illiquid or become temporary illiquid because of some Corporate Action for example), a broker cross a 10$ call at 2.95$ when the market is at $13, in fact my broker did the hedge lower and he didnt crossed it before the market rose so it traded as an apparent arbitrage while it was not, there is no way for you to know this.Dont try to have double digit precision on vol for this, it makes no sense. Honestly , for a big historical knowing it traded 23% or 23.5% is already really good, if you wanted to build a short term trading model you wouldn't use 10 years historical anyway.Good luck.