January 13th, 2014, 11:55 am
The part of the increase that is due to flow of capital into the UK has some structure to it.A good chunk is down to the "rule of law premium", consider the following headline:"Government seizes foreign property in order to enrich powerful local interests"Form an ordered list of the countries where that might be said.At one extreme we have Russia, where corruption is so routine that it isn't that newsworthy and almost the opposite end of the scale is the UK.That narrows your choice down to about a dozen European states, but not the USA which through a mix of sanctions against countries they don't like and judicial corruption is not the safest place to put your core, "must never lose" money that will support your family after the situation in Russia, China or the Middle East goes bad for you.So if you've got (say) 100meg what do you do with it ?Given that even the worst downturn in UK property prices has never really been that bad and has always rebounded, it is a reasonably rational place to invest and of course the sort of people moving their cash to London like property.Ascaldo makes the point about learning English and if you are rich, there are few safer places to raise your kids and you can buy a good education.But being foreign, the investors are a bit vague about what the "good" and "bad" bits of the UK might be, so they invest in places they recognise and note I say "property" not "homes".That means the City of London is having huge office blocks built even though the only thing that happens there is finance and that hasn't been the best place recently.Literally next to it is Holborn (branded now as "midtown"where they stuggle even to attract Brits, much less foreigners and of course Mayfair, Chelsea et al are sucking in money so hard that a friend of mine who is merely rich by British standards is organising some sort of political effort to reduce the inflow. Stratford may have had the Olympics, but convincing a Russian to invest there is very very hard ,yet you can see the City of London from your window.So by the time you get outside London, foreign investors find they must trust local advisors which frankly they don't, at least not for core wealth protection.The areas that have seen the greatest price increases have very limited ability to take more housing by combination of regulation and simply there not being any space.Also as MaffF says, house building has never kept anywhere near domestic demand in the UK and has actually got worse, even before we allow for inward investment.Also on top of that the UK is for many Europeans the place they would most like to move to, Germany may in aggregate attract more but is a much larger country, less densely populated and Europeans tend to come to London and slowly diffuse over the country, this effect pushing up the lower end of the market.One implication of this is that if the UK left the EU, then the bottom half of the housing market would get hit quite hard as migrant workers went back to E.Europe and France.