I would kindly request no flame just analysis/opinions ofEuropean economic outlook over next 1-2 decades.1. Germanya. What impact will there be from China going up value chain in manufacturing?b. If China hard lands and is forced for major devaluation of yuan and fire sale will it cause sustained recession/deflation in Germany?c. Over next 5-10 years what can be impact of Greece, Portugal and Spain on German banks?d. How complex and what scale is the refugee crisis? The social impact and possible impact on consumer sentiment?2. What is long term future of Euro?3. Does European Central bank has the capability to fight prolonged deflation(which is a distinct possibility)?4. What industries in Europe will be most at risk in the event of massive dumping by China over next 10 years or so?5. What will be outlook of tourism sector in Europe over next 1-2 decades?6. What effect will be there be in banks in Europe if and when FATCA and tax treaties are fully implemented?7. The most complex and probably most important issue with aging, immigration/refugee issues in 10 years what kind of changes can we expect in European consumer profile?

A few more points:8. Roughly what % of GDP will be social security obligations of major European countries in 10yrs? How will they fulfill these obligations?9. China is poaching pharma and generics brain from India bigtime. What about Europe? I have a feeling China may be very big in pharma in 10 years. What happens to European Pharma sector?10. What kind of advances do you see in Europe in sunrise sectors of tomorrow like renewables, IOT, robotics, genomics, specialized chemicals, building materials,composites to name a few?11. How easy/difficult it will be to assimilate the immigrants from cultural, religious and economic perspective?

12. How long is a piece of string?

Current financial crisis is a restructuring of the global financial and economic markets. It came as a reaction on money excess of three primary currencies usd, eu, jpy. First they pumped cash and bonds then with QE help they have bought bonds back before their expirations. The needs why it was happen are primarily two reasons: wars and expending derivatives market. Wars represent factor of investment with negative return and derivatives market stimulates investments with zero economics. It is money demand which does not produce a real manufacture. It was possible to increase money surplus without immediate inflation and other negative aftereffects only because usd, eu, jpy are primary currencies for trades. Increased amount of money were absorbed initially by other countries for trades. Stocks were growth without growth of real economy. I recently saw a graph from Bloomberg which represents unemployment rate a little above 5% and unworked it seems above 30 millions in USA and comment was that unemployed rate covers only registered people and therefore statements that US economy is an a good conditions are quite questionable. And this is a primary argument when one is uses his voice to raised interest rates. In 2014 China was a market in which money from the West market were moved as West did not promised a visible return. Growth of money surplus has created a balloon. I think that sanctions against Russia was a trigger event. A reduction of the global economy are taking place. This reduction is systematic. I do not think that ECB or Fed Reserve can be make anything to improve situation immediately. I think that with the wave of immigrants in Europe there are many radicals and ISIS members arrive in European countries. It will be next problems. I do not think that using single currency in many European countries was a good idea. One degree of freedom represents less stable dynamics compare with many degrees of freedom for the same system. Soon it should be an adjustment for european union. All current european problems does not have similar impact on USA. USA probably has more profit than loss from the current world troubles.

QuoteI think that with the wave of immigrants in Europe there are many radicals and ISIS members arrive in European countries. It will be next problems. I do not think that using single currency in many European countries was a good idea. One degree of freedom represents less stable dynamics compare with many degrees of freedom for the same system. Soon it should be an adjustment for european unionWow! This 'analysis' is sensationalist. It's like straight out of Fox News. Of course, you know Europe? Do you do business with Europe.

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteI think that with the wave of immigrants in Europe there are many radicals and ISIS members arrive in European countries. It will be next problems. I do not think that using single currency in many European countries was a good idea. One degree of freedom represents less stable dynamics compare with many degrees of freedom for the same system. Soon it should be an adjustment for european unionWow! This 'analysis' is sensationalist. It's like straight out of Fox News. Of course, you know Europe? Do you do business with Europe.I am reading Russian and Ukrainian news and time to time they talk about radicals who took part in Middle East wars and return to Russia. Russian media also highlights the fact that some have connections to Al-Qaeda or ISIS. Others take part in Ukrainian war against pro Russian separatists. Similar situations can be expected in next in Europe.Separatists for me do not always wrong. For example Americans got their state as separatists against GB though Canada did not completely separated from GB that it also not too bad. The idea that a single currency development in Europe is worse than old financial system came to me in 2000. I had zero knowledge in finance and economy together but from common sense I thought that countries are different and if they have similar conditions at initial moment then it will not last forever and new conditions would imply other than recomended weights which reproduce value of the euro with respect to usd and jpy. Later I prepered a draft http://www.slideshare.net/list2do/multi ... 39554where other idea of currency unification was presented. The primary idea to use virtual currency which does not eliminate oldies and stems from existed exchange rates. The idea close to dynamic synthetically constructed SDR without prespecified weights.

Ireland fastest growing economy in EU - CSO QuoteThe Irish economy is now the same size as it was at its peak in 2007.