not to forget the patriotic and economically literate McDonnell.

I came to a similar conclusions looking at past results and the polls, I think tories could nick dudley north though, the main difference I was highlighting was Derby North, ukip are 100/1, Tories 1/5 on (whereas for the other 4 seats ukip are 10/1,15/1,18/1 and 33/1)

Paddy power have labour at 10/3 in Derby North, the others they are now favourites.

<t>i take it your argument is that current work is completley determined by previous work, laws of nature and logic. so this current space determines the next development? i think this is more true of science than math, which makes the border of applied maths and theoretical physics that with the gr...

i find the +ve correlation a lot more surprising for the US-ve correlation makes sense if inflation is coincident with growth, perhaps the sign change indicates a market believes in the feds ability to contain inflation which also agrees with the current 2's10

what do you intend to do with these spreads?have you actually looked at the performance of this model - where there is vol trading? its not great...

are you talking in cb delta terms?would be better to look at the number of shares as this will show you aren't really short gamma

how i wish i was 20 years older...

<t>I don't think I agree on the CSCO point. With the stock at $80 the balance sheet is in better shape and they have much better refinancing options - its only with a degree of hindsight that you can dismiss the information content of the ridiculous share price, particularly as to the potential futu...

agreed but the gamma swap should help to get rid of the kind of vol exposure they have...

<t>as Aaron says - its a pretty good idea to get to grips with the probabilities and game theory side of the form you choose to start with (would have been much cheaper than most people's introduction), but these are merely the blocks of the real game, which really is about focus rather than any big...

my question is - french banks using this to get the autocallable structures exposure's off the books - then as we coming to a few expiraries of that are they going to roll some of this up and out? if so that mean we're going up in a step wise fashion?

well why do you?

<t>what you are saying is that if you have 10mm of bonds - then sell (not short them) and buy treasuries you'll have no spread over treasuries? YES... what pickles was saying is that the spread over treasuries and cds spread are not the same - there is a basis (which basis traders trade) -there are ...

pickles - thats just not quite true - cds market has much more liquidity and there are issues with no outstanding bonds where cds trades on the name... i agree though - there is no chicken and egg - cds trades - market participants determine a price and from this we can imply a default prob.